From Kirk Cousins to Joshua Dobbs and Sam Darnold, it hasn’t mattered who has played quarterback for the Minnesota Vikings this decade. Either way, Justin Jefferson has dominated.
Jefferson spent the past few weeks battling a hamstring strain, though, all while the Vikings have been trying to break in another new signal-caller. J.J. McCarthy was technically a rookie in 2024, but given the first-round pick out of Michigan missed the entire season with a torn ACL, 2025 is really his first go-round in the NFL.
McCarthy is, effectively, the first rookie Jefferson has had to catch passes from. Cousins was a Pro Bowl veteran, Dobbs was a seven-year backup and Darnold was six years removed from being a top-three pick in the draft.
So with their 22-year-old quarterback still in the process of building chemistry with their superstar receiver, Minnesota will try and exceed expectations again in 2025.
Vikings Win Total
The Vikings proved they could weather the storm of a question mark at quarterback in 2024, clearing their preseason win total of 6.5 in Week 9 and finishing 14-3. Darnold and the offense got battered by the Los Angeles Rams once the playoffs started, but that was still a lot further than many expected them to make it.
Minnesota was constantly underestimated at home, as the team went 7-2 against the spread at U.S. Bank Stadium. The Vikings also went 4-1 against the spread as the underdog during the regular season. As for point totals, their games finished under the game total’s closing line 11 out of 18 times, including the postseason.
Darnold left to join the Seattle Seahawks in free agency, putting all the pressure on McCarthy to lead Minnesota past the 8.5 win total DraftKings Sportsbook has them down for in 2025. There is currently a sharp lean towards the over, with that play accounting for 52% of the bets and 65% of the handle.
The Vikings are the 13th-most bet handle To Make The Playoffs at +125 odds, while there is 12% handle on 8% of bets for them to win the NFC North at +450.
Justin Jefferson Futures Splits
There is a strong public belief that Jefferson will clear both 1,250.5 receiving yards and 9.5 receiving touchdowns, but the sharps aren’t on the same page. While 94% of the bets are taking the over on Jefferson’s receiving yards, only 81% of the handle is going the same way. The gap is even bigger when it comes to receiving touchdowns, with the over accounting for 91% of the bets but only 64% of the handle.
Jefferson racked up 1,533 yards and 10 touchdowns on 103 catches in 2024. He totaled 1,074 receiving yards and five touchdowns when he was limited to 10 games in 2023.
Between 2020 and 2022, Jefferson averaged 1,608 receiving yards and eight touchdowns on 108 receptions each season. Again, though, he had the benefit of a high-level vet in Kirk Cousins during that stretch.
Jefferson’s Offensive Player of the Year odds opened at +1400, but they have slid to +1600. He carries 4% of the handle on 3% of the bets to win the award. He was previously named NFL Offensive Player of the Year in 2022, when he led the league in both receptions and receiving yards.
Other Notable Player Prop Splits
On top of Jefferson, McCarthy has a handful of other weapons to throw to in 2025.
Tight end T.J. Hockenson is set to play in a full season after missing the start of 2024 recovering from a torn ACL of his own. It’s a good thing he’s back to full strength, too, since receiver Jordan Addison will miss the first three regular season games serving a suspension for violating the NFL’s substance abuse policy.
Here are the prop lines for McCarthy, Hockenson, Addison and veteran running back Aaron Jones Sr., as well as where the splits are leaning at the moment:
- McCarthy’s Regular Season Passing Yards prop is set at 3,600.5. The under has seen 53% of the handle on 53% of the bets.
- McCarthy’s Regular Season Passing TDs prop is set at 24.5. The under has seen 73% of the handle on 62% of the bets.
- Hockenson’s Regular Season Receiving Yards prop is set at 700.5. The over has seen 83% of the handle on 74% of the bets.
- Addison’s Regular Season Receiving Yards prop is set at 625.5. The under has seen 64% of the handle on 8% of the bets.
- Jones’ Regular Season Rushing Yards prop is set at 725.5. The under has seen 77% of the handle on 23% of the bets.
Betting Trends From 2024 to Consider
McCarthy doesn’t have an NFL track record to go off of, but each of his top targets do. Here is a quick breakdown of how they each performed against the closing line for their game-day player props last season:
- Justin Jefferson
- Receiving Yards: 11-7 to the over
- Receptions: 11-7 to the over
- Aaron Jones Sr.
- Rush Attempts: 9-8 to the under
- Receiving Yards: 10-8 to the over
- Receptions: 10-7 to the over
- T.J. Hockenson
- Receiving Yards: 6-5 to the over
- Receptions: 6-5 to the under
- Jordan Addison
- Receiving Yards: 9-7 to the over
Use the data you find in this series to place your NFL bets on DraftKings Sportsbook before the season begins.
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