This is the third game of a four-game series in Colorado between the Rockies and visiting Los Angeles Dodgers.
Clayton Kershaw is scheduled to pitch for Los Angeles while Chase Dollander is slated to start for Colorado.
Rockies vs. Dodgers prediction, preview
Clayton Kershaw still continues to get it done at age 37. The average fastball velocity is down at 88.9 mph and the strikeout rate is only 15.5%, yet he’s still managed to cobble together a 3.01 ERA. He’s been a little fortunate with a .277 BABIP and 76.3% strand rate, resulting in a higher FIP at 3.88. Kershaw has maintained the stellar control and has allowed only seven home runs in 77.2 innings. The hard hit rate is 43.7% but the barrel rate is a miniscule 4.5%. The dude just knows how to pitch.
Six of the seven home runs have come off the bat of righties. Other than that, most of the advanced numbers are similar for both lefties and righties. Kershaw has been better on the road, as the K-BB% is 5.7% higher while six of the seven home runs allowed have been served up at home.
Kershaw has allowed more than three earned runs three times this season. He’s gone at least six innings in seven of 15 starts. Over the last three games, he’s gone six innings in each while allowing only one, one and zero earned runs. This game is in Colorado, but Kershaw pitched there back in June, going six innings while walking one batter, striking out five and allowing only one earned run on two hits.
Against left-handed pitching, the Rockies have struck out at the seventh-highest rate while having the 14th-best ISO. Their wOBA is 19th-best in MLB.
Chase Dollander throws hard for Colorado, averaging 97.9 mph on the fastball. Unfortunately, the pitch has a -9.1 run value. His main off-speed pitch is a curveball and he induces a chase rate of only 22.8%. The ERA is 6.43 while the FIP is 5.53. The strikeout rate is only 17.7% while the walk rate is a robust 10.7%. He’s also allowed 15 home runs in 78.1 innings.
Dollander has had more difficulty with lefties than righties. The K-BB% is only 2.6% while the FIP is 6.14. Not surprisingly, he’s struggled more at home where nine of the 15 home runs have been hit.
Dollander has allowed more than three earned runs in seven of 17 starts. He’s gone at least six innings only three times. He faced the Dodgers at home five starts ago, going 5.1 innings, walking two, striking out one and allowing three earned runs on three hits.
The Dodgers have struck out at the 15th-highest rate against right-handed pitching while ranking fifth in ISO. Their wOBA ranks third as well.
As for the bullpens, Los Angeles has the 17th-lowest FIP, while Colorado has the 29th-lowest.
Rockies vs. Dodgers pick, best bet
The total of 12 runs is the highest on the slate by a wide margin. No other game is above nine. The Moneyline for the Dodgers is -295. Even Dodgers -1.5 is -227. I’m not a fan of most of the bets, but if I had to choose one, I’ll go with under 12 runs at -108.
