The National League Wild Card race promises to be a four-for-three battle to the finish, one of the most compelling storylines down the finishing stretch of the MLB season. Right now, it’s the Chicago Cubs, San Diego Padres, and New York Mets who hold those spots, but the Mets are floundering and the Cincinnati Reds trail them by just one game, seeking their first playoff berth since 2020.
The Reds will go for a sweep of the Los Angeles Angels tonight, with the first pitch at 9:38 p.m. ET. Nick Martinez is slated to take the mound for the visitors, with Yusei Kikuchi getting the call for Los Angeles.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Angels prediction, preview
Cincinnati’s second-half charge has been driven largely by its pitching staff; since the All-Star break, the Reds are 17-13 and have baseball’s third-best ERA. Along the way, they’ve shut down several high-powered offenses and even ended the Milwaukee Brewers’ 14-game winning streak. They then looked clinical on Monday against the Angels and handed possible future Hall of Famer Kenley Jansen his third loss of the season with a pair of ninth-inning scores last night. Los Angeles’ pitching struggles have continued this series; since the All-Star break, the Angels have posted the league’s fifth-worst ERA en route to a 13-17 record, and both teams have had average offenses.
Kikuchi, Los Angeles’ nominal ace, hasn’t been immune from the woes. Overall, the veteran Japanese southpaw has enjoyed the best season of his career, posting a 3.11 ERA through the All-Star break to make the team for the second time. In his six starts since then, Kikuchi has posted a 5.10 ERA, giving up four earned runs in each of his past two appearances. Still, there are reasons to believe he could bounce back tonight. This season, the 34-year-old has thrown his slider more frequently than his four-seam fastball, and two of Cincinnati’s best hitters, Elly De La Cruz and Gavin Lux, are far better against four-seam fastballs than sliders. The Reds have also posted the league’s sixth-worst OPS against lefties.
Kikuchi has an edge in the pitching matchup against Martinez, who’s had a poor season, posting by far his highest ERA since returning from a four-season stint in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. Like Kikuchi, he’s coming off of a rough start, giving up six runs (five earned) on nine hits in 2.2 innings last Friday to see his ERA rise to 4.73. Advanced numbers are fairly kind to him — his expected ERA is a more respectable 4.15 and he does a good job limiting hard hits — but he hasn’t done a good job inducing many whiffs or strikeouts. That could be a problem even against the Angels, who have struck out 17 more times than any other team since the All-Star break.
Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Angels pick, best bet
Best Bet: Los Angeles Angels -1.5 (+149)
Though I still like the Reds to eventually surpass New York and make the postseason, especially at friendly +220 odds, this is the one matchup in which a Los Angeles pitcher has the edge. Second-half Kikuchi has been better than the raw numbers have indicated, and deadline acquisitions Andrew Chafin and Luis García have helped shore up an awful bullpen.
Strong Lean: Zach Neto or Jo Adell – Either Player 1+ Home Runs (+135)
Though Martinez doesn’t have as big of an issue with the long ball as his new teammate Zack Littell, who leads the league in the category, he still gives up pulled fly balls at an above-average rate. Either Neto or Adell has gone deep in eight of the team’s 16 games this month.
