Barring disaster, the Seattle Mariners and the Philadelphia Phillies will be playing October baseball. But there’s a lot left to settle until we get there.
The Phillies have created separation in the NL East race. They’ve kept chugging while the New York Mets have fallen behind. But a lot can change in six weeks, and they’ll have to fend off the Mets while fighting for positioning in the NL division leaders race. Teams who stay hot going into the postseason tend to make the deepest runs; now is not the time for Philadelphia to take its foot off the gas.
Seattle has to be pedal to the metal for the rest of the year. In a dead heat for the AL Wild Card while being within a couple of games of the Houston Astros for the AL West, it’s all on the line. How the next few weeks go could vault them into the third seed, or see them drop entirely out of the race. With the moves they made at the deadline, anything other than a 90-win year and a playoff berth would be devastating.
The Phillies are -144 moneyline favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook. The run total is set at 8.5. Let’s dig into a preview, prediction and pick for this Mariners vs. Phillies game.
Mariners vs. Phillies prediction, pick
Wednesday’s pitching matchup is a funky one, to say the least.
Jesús Luzardo is an unpredictable starting pitcher. The 27-year-old southpaw has made 13 trips to the mound since the beginning of June. Here are his earned run totals in those 13: 8, 1, 4, 0, 2, 5, 0, 4, 6, 0, 3, 1, 3. He’s been just as likely to give up 4+ earned runs as one or fewer. The thing about Luzardo is that it all comes down to luck and the big inning.
When his command goes off the rails, he’s walking the bases loaded. When he loses the finish on his pitches, it’s barrel after barrel. That could cause a lot of problems against a Mariners offense that beefed up in a big way at the trade deadline. But if the strikeout stuff is there, he can look like an All-Star on any given night. What we’ll get on Wednesday night is anyone’s guess.
Luis Castillo has the opposite luck to Luzardo this year. The veteran’s 3.48 ERA is underscored by a 47.2% hard-hit rate, an 8th percentile mark in the bigs. Hitters aren’t fooled by Castillo’s breaking balls anymore, and he’s becoming reliant on the fastball. That came home to roost in his last start, where the Mets teed him up for nine hits and six earned runs. Perhaps the luck is running out, and this Phillies offense will be a real test.
On name value alone, this is a pitcher’s duel. But, in reality, it’s more likely to be a high-scoring affair with the way these two starters are going, and the quality of these offenses.
