There’s no way of sugarcoating the Los Angeles Dodgers’ performance last night in the first game of their four-game series against the cellar-dwelling Colorado Rockies: it was inexcusable. Los Angeles, which remained two games ahead of the San Diego Padres for the NL West lead thanks to the latter’s loss to the San Francisco Giants, will hope to bounce back tonight with the 8:40 p.m. ET first pitch.
The Dodgers will start their worst rotation member, Emmet Sheehan, and Austin Gomber will toe the rubber for Colorado.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies prediction, preview
Yoshinobu Yamamoto pitched well enough to win last night, giving up three runs on four hits and two walks in seven innings, and Los Angeles should’ve been able to score more than three runs against a woeful Rockies pitching staff that has allowed four or more runs in 95 of its 125 games. But as has been a theme throughout Yamamoto’s two-season career, the Dodgers couldn’t give him any run support, going just two-for-11 with runners in scoring position. After last night’s result, Colorado has gone 14-15 since the All-Star break, half a game better than its significantly more expensive division rival. The Rockies have posted an OPS 24 points better than Los Angeles’ over that span.
Sheehan is the worst of the four starters that the Dodgers will trot out to the mound this series. Although he’s been good more often than not, allowing two or fewer earned runs in six of his eight starts, he’s also prone to the occasional blow-up, as he did by giving up five earned runs in five innings against the Los Angeles Angels last Tuesday. He pairs a bottom-quartile average exit velocity with a bottom-quartile ground-ball rate, which isn’t a great combination for Colorado’s thin air, although he put together a pair of solid performances in his two appearances at Coors Field in 2023. Sheehan has pretty solid breaking stuff, but both Hunter Goodman and Warming Bernabel have smashed sliders this season.
Thankfully for Los Angeles, no matter how poor Sheehan is, it’s fairly likely that Gomber will perform worse. This season, the 31-year-old southpaw has posted a 6.75 ERA across 54.2 innings, giving up four or more earned runs in six of his 11 starts, and he’s yet to pick up a win. There isn’t much to redeem him — he ranks in the league’s bottom decile in seven of the 13 Statcast categories — but at least he tends to allow soft contact and avoids walking too many batters. Unfortunately for him, the Dodgers have laced the cover off the ball all season, hit fly balls at the league’s highest rate, and still have ranked second in the league in walks even in their post-All-Star malaise. Los Angeles’ offense should’ve turned around yesterday against Kyle Freeland, but it’ll have another golden ticket tonight against Gomber.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies pick, best bet
Best Bet: Colorado Rockies +2.5 Alternate Spread (+113)
Getting plus-odds on the Rockies simply to lose by two or fewer runs should underscore how awful they have been all season, and I’m going to bite: the Dodgers simply haven’t been that much better than them as of late, especially not with Sheehan on the mound.
Strong Lean: Shohei Ohtani 5+ Hits + Runs + RBI’s (+125)
Ohtani hasn’t been the problem, given that he’s slashed a ridiculous .397/.521/.741 so far in August, averaging three hits + runs + RBI’s per game. Gomber gives up pulled fly balls at among the league’s highest rates and has given up a 1.046 ERA to lefties this season. Ohtani has averaged 4.5 H/R/RBI’s as a Dodger in Coors Field games started by Gomber.
