Real Madrid is back like it never left — because it basically didn’t. Less than six weeks ago, Los Blancos fell 4-0 to Paris Saint-Germain in the semifinals of the Club World Cup, ending their 2024-25 season without a major trophy. Their 2025-26 La Liga campaign will begin today with a 3 p.m. ET clash against Osasuna, which finished ninth last season and missed a Conference League spot only by virtue of a defeat against Rayo Vallecano.
After being pipped to the title twice by Barcelona in the past three seasons, Madrid has the second-shortest odds this season at DraftKings Sportsbook. The Blaugrana are -115 and Los Blancos +100, with no other team owning better than +1000 odds. For fans of extreme long shots, Real Madrid is +100000 to be relegated to La Liga 2.
With Barcelona atop La Liga after a 3-0 trouncing of Mallorca on the opening match day, Madrid has -450 odds to join the Blaugrana on three points. Osasuna has +950 odds, with a draw a one-in-six possibility.
Real Madrid vs. Osasuna prediction, pick
Real Madrid underwent a lot of changes this summer. Club legend Luka Modrić left for AC Milan, while Trent Alexander-Arnold joined from Liverpool and Dean Huijsen from Bournemouth. Perhaps most notably, Xabi Alonso left Bayer Leverkusen after a tremendous two-year stint in the Bundesliga to manage the club with which he won a Champions League title in 2014. Huijsen, Trent, and Alonso all impressed to varying degrees during the Club World Cup, and 20-year-old Gonzalo García broke out with five goal contributions to earn himself a contract extension. García should continue to play a major role in the squad at least until Jude Bellingham returns following his shoulder surgery last month.
Osasuna had a much more quiet offseason, bringing in just four players: one from relegated Leganés, a pair of loan returnees from La Liga 2, plus Real Madrid youngster Víctor Muñoz for five million Euros. Los Rojillos also lost defender Jesús Areso, who started all but three of the club’s La Liga matches last season, won 69.6% of his challenges, and had a strong debut for Athletic Club on Sunday. Last season, Osasuna already had a mediocre defense, allowing the eighth-most goals in the competition, so losing its defensive linchpin won’t help.
Real Madrid will need to improve a defense that was somewhat exploitable in 2024-25, allowing nine more goals than Barcelona did and conceding six goals in the CWC knockout stages. It did bring in three, although Trent and Álvaro Carreras — who are more attack-oriented wing-backs — might not be the perfect solution, especially with Antonio Rüdiger suspended and Eduardo Camavinga injured once again. That’s not to say that Los Rojillos can score enough to pick up a win; their front three of Ante Budimir, Muñoz, and Rubén García doesn’t hold a candle to Los Blancos’ Vinicius Junior, Kylian Mbappé, and Rodrygo. Despite Sergio Herrera’s strong 2024-25 campaign and Thibaut Courtois’ slightly disappointing form, I back Mbappé to put one past Herrera before I back any Osasuna attacker to beat Courtois.
Of Madrid’s front three, Rodrygo is the only one not guaranteed to play, as the Brazilian has been rumored with a move away from the Santiago Bernabéu all summer. Still, whether or not he suits up in the season opener, Madrid’s depth up front is ridiculous, with García and Brahim Díaz waiting in the wings and Federico Valverde also capable of playing further up. Valentin Rosier, the sole right-back on Osasuna’s roster, allowed Mbappé to score a pair of goals as a Leganés player last season, and left wingers Vinicius and Díaz combined for five shot attempts as well. I like at least one of them to find the back of the net tonight.
