The 2024 Miami Dolphins finished the season with 591 pass attempts, the eighth-most in the NFL. The 58.6% pass rate was 11th-most. Miami finished with an 8-9 regular season record and missed the playoffs for the first time in the Mike McDaniel era. The defense played surprisingly well, but Tua Tagovailoa only started 11 games.
There are so many questions for Miami entering 2025. Can Tagovailoa stay healthy? Is Tyreek Hill toast? Will Darren Wallen be a thing? Has the league figured out McDaniel? Can the defense replicate last season’s success?
Dolphins target share overview
Mike McDaniel began his NFL coaching career way back in 2005 with the Denver Broncos as an intern. He was an offensive assistant with the Houston Texans, Washington Redskins and Atlanta Falcons, with stints as a wide receivers coach with the Cleveland Browns and Redskins. In 2017, he followed Kyle Shanahan from Atlanta to San Francisco and was the run game coordinator for four seasons before being named the offensive coordinator.
McDaniel then took his talents to Miami and became the head man in 2022. He improved the offense dramatically, finishing 11th in points and sixth in yards. In the prior season, Miami was 22nd and 25th, respectively. The pass rate was 61.97%, the seventh-highest in the league. Much of that had to do with the porous Dolphins defense that finished 24th in points and 18th in yards.
After a year of implementing the system and acquiring the right pieces, the Dolphins offense took off in Year 2. The unit finished second in points and first in yards. The pass rate came down to 57.37%, 15th-most in the league. McDaniel comes from the Shanahan tree, so the run game is very important.
Miami finished with the third-most passing first downs, eighth-most passing plays over 20 yards and third-most passing plays over 40 yards.
It was the rushing game, though, that opened up everything. Miami finished with the sixth-most rushing yards, the highest yards per carry, tied for the most rushing touchdowns, the third-most rushing plays over 20 yards and the most rushing plays over 40 yards.
Everything came crashing down last season. Tagovailoa only playing 11 games was massive, but defenses adjusted and made philosophical shifts. Cloud and Cover 2 defenses both saw dramatic increases from the prior season – 29.3% to 35.2% for Cloud and 17.8% to 28% for Cover 2, per Next Gen Stats.
Miami had the third-fewest passing plays over 20 yards and tied for the fewest passing plays over 40 yards. In the run game, Miami had the third-lowest yards per carry, fifth-fewest rushing plays over 20 yards and three rushing plays over 40 yards, down from eight in 2023.
PFF has the Dolphins offensive line rated 25th heading into the season. If the unit cannot open up rush lanes, then more passing could be in the works. But, if the unit cannot protect Tagovailoa, then there will be fewer sustained drives and possibly less pass attempts.
The defense was solid last season, especially in point prevention. Anthony Weaver will continue to lead the unit, but gone is Calais Campbell, while the entire secondary has been revamped. Both cornerbacks, Kendall Fuller and Jalen Ramsey are gone. At safety, Jordan Poyer and Jevon Holland have been replaced by Minkah Fitzpatrick and Ifeatu Melifonwu.
If the defense regresses from last season, that could require the Dolphins to tilt toward the passing game more.
Now, let’s take a look at how the targets should be distributed in Miami this season.
Wide receivers
Tyreek Hill led the team with 122 targets and a 21.9% target share. In the prior two seasons with Miami, the target share was 33.7% and 31.6%, resulting in at least 170 targets in both campaigns. The yards per reception, receptions per game and yards per game all plummeted. Hill was dealing with a wrist injury and underwent surgery in May. He will also turn 32 years old this season. There’s a lot of unknown with Hill this season. I doubt he gets back to a 30% target share, but an uptick from last season is likely.
Jaylen Waddle finished with 83 targets and a 16.6% target share in 15 games. In the prior two seasons, he garnered a 21.6% and 23.4% target share. I think he gets back up to the 20% range, especially since Jonnu Smith is no longer on the team.
Malik Washington had 36 targets and a 7.9% target share in 14 games. He only played 414 snaps. Miami utilized 11 personnel at the third-lowest rate last season.
Tight ends
Jonnu Smith garnered 111 targets and a 20% target share last season. Smith is now in Pittsburgh and was replaced by Darren Waller, who hasn’t played since 2023. I am skeptical of Waller getting a high target share, which makes me bullish on the prospects for Hill and Waddle. In 2023, Durham Smythe led the tight ends with 43 targets and a 3.1% target share.
Running backs
De’Von Achane saw 87 targets and a 15.6% target share. Only Alvin Kamara and Christian McCaffrey had a higher target share last season amongst running backs. Achane has an ADP around the 14th-to-15th overall player selected in drafts for good reasons, one of those being that he is going to be heavily utilized in the pass game.
Raheem Mostert had 23 targets but he’s in Las Vegas now. Jaylen Wright is second on the depth chart now but he is no threat to Achane for targets.
