It’s been a drama-filled season for both the Cleveland Guardians and the Arizona Diamondbacks. The stretch run is a chance for both teams to salvage something from disappointing years.
The Diamondbacks faced a crossroads this year. After making the World Series in Cinderella fashion in 2023, they barely missed the postseason in 2024. The roster was aging, with key players on expiring deals. A disappointing first half led to a trade deadline fire sale.
Cleveland has plenty of questions of its own. A sluggish first half of the year raised questions about selling at the deadline. On top of that, its star closer was suspended. A strong August has put the team back in the Wild Card chase, and with its star talent, anything is possible. At the very least, it’s shown the front office that it belongs in the playoff chase. That has to count for something.
The Diamondbacks are -132 moneyline favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook. The run total is set at nine runs. Let’s dig into a preview, prediction and pick for this Guardians vs. Diamondbacks game.
Guardians vs. Diamondbacks prediction, preview
Wednesday’s pitching matchup is going to be filled with nerves. The Guardians, in the middle of a playoff chase, throw a top prospect out for his major league debut. No pressure.
Parker Messick, Cleveland’s No. 10 prospect according to MLB Pipeline Rank, takes the mound Wednesday. They challenged the 24-year-old left-hander with a promotion to AAA this year, and he responded well. Pitching to a 3.47 ERA over 98.2 innings with Columbus, he struck out 119 batters while surrendering only 42 walks and nine home runs. Now he has to test his mettle against the Diamondbacks.
Messick doesn’t overwhelm with velocity, throwing his fastball in the low 90s. He wins with command, great pitch mixing, and a relentless ability to throw strikes. There’s a knuckleball-y aspect to his changeup, and it generates a ton of swing and misses. Pitchers who aren’t afraid to pound the strike zone are rewarded if the hitter doesn’t know what’s coming. These Diamondbacks hitters will have their work cut out for them to guess what Messick will throw next.
Unfortunately for Diamondbacks starter Brandon Pfaadt, hitters seem to know what’s coming. Through three seasons and 75 career starts, Pfaadt has pitched to a 5.06 ERA. According to Baseball Savant, his 5.92 expected ERA is a third percentile mark, and hitters are expected to bat .302 against him. Not even 10 qualified hitters in the majors are batting over .300 this year. Cleveland doesn’t have the most explosive offense in the league, but when you turn every hitter into Aaron Judge, that doesn’t matter.
I trust Messick to deliver in this one. In the sense that he can’t be worse than Pfaadt, he’s good enough for me. I’m backing the superior team as road underdogs.
