AL East superiority might well be back: three of the division’s five teams look likely to make the playoffs, with the Boston Red Sox holding a three-game lead over the Cleveland Guardians for the final AL Wild Card spot, and even the Baltimore Orioles are better than any other last-place side in baseball.
Tonight, the Red Sox and Orioles will play the second of a two-game set at Fenway Park before meeting again for a four-game series next week. The struggling Walker Buehler will take the mound for Boston, while Baltimore opts for Tomoyuki Sugano.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox prediction, preview
Despite going just 4-7 in their last 11 games to get passed by the New York Yankees for second in the division, the Red Sox have still been one of the league’s better teams overall since the All-Star break, posting a 15-13 record and the fifth-best ERA in baseball across that span. Last night, it was their bullpen that struggled; even if Dustin May technically took the loss, six innings and two runs is still as much as they could’ve asked for. Instead, the offense couldn’t get much going against Trevor Rogers, who pitched seven innings and gave up four hits and one run. Five different Orioles had multi-hit games, while only Roman Anthony and Trevor Story managed that for Boston.
While neither pitcher has had a great season, Baltimore probably has a slight pitching edge. Sugano had a couple of rough starts near the end of June and start of July, but in five post-All-Star break starts, the 35-year-old Japanese rookie has posted a 3.00 ERA, conceding exactly one earned run thrice. Advanced numbers aren’t as kind to Sugano — his expected ERA is a pitiful 5.69 and he’s struggled to generate whiffs — but he has exceptional control and has mostly limited hard hits. The issue is that he hasn’t provided much length, averaging just 87.9 pitches per start, and the Orioles’ bullpen has the league’s sixth-worst ERA.
Buehler has more historic pedigree than Sugano, having finished fourth in NL Cy Young Award voting in 2021, but after returning from Tommy John surgery prior to the 2024 season, he’s been atrocious: 37 starts, a 5.41 ERA, and, more worryingly, a 5.75 FIP across stints with the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Red Sox. There have been a few signs of improvement — since the start of July, he’s had a more respectable 3.69 ERA — but even in that span, he’s had nearly as many walks as strikeouts and a 5.61 FIP. Buehler has been just as bad at generating whiffs and strikeouts as Sugano has, but he also issues free passes at a 19th-percentile rate. His only strength is a 74th-percentile average exit velocity, and the Orioles have recorded the league’s fourth-highest average exit velocity this season.
Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox pick, best bet
Best Bet: Baltimore Orioles Moneyline (+117)
Baltimore has won five of its last six games, and its offense is in much better form than Boston’s. Buehler alluded to it himself at the peak of his struggles, admitting that his career was in jeopardy. The Red Sox have won through their pitching, but at this stage, Buehler isn’t an MLB-quality pitcher.
Strong Lean: Under 14.5 Total Strikeouts Thrown (-125)
Neither Buehler nor Sugano is very capable of racking up strikeouts, so as long as the starting pitchers remain in the game, I’d expect a lot of field outs. To be fair, the Orioles’ bullpen has recorded the fifth-most strikeouts this season, but Boston’s relievers don’t rack up a lot of strikeouts for how good they are overall.
