A few weeks ago, the Minnesota Twins and Athletics both had trade deadlines defined not by who was traded away but who wasn’t — with both teams out of playoff contention, both teams unloaded several of their best players onto contenders.
The new-look teams will face each other tonight at 7:40 p.m. ET in the first game of a three-game set in Minnesota. The Athletics will start Jacob Lopez, who wasn’t ever thought to be on the market, while the Twins will counter with All-Star Joe Ryan, whose lofty value clearly wasn’t met at the deadline.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Athletics at Minnesota Twins prediction, preview
Minnesota has actually managed to stay afloat since the trade deadline, going 7-9 so far thanks to a pitching staff that has posted the league’s 11th-best ERA. Though the Twins have lost five of their last seven, those losses were excusable, given that they came against a pair of surefire playoff teams in the Detroit Tigers and New York Yankees. Unsurprisingly, their new-look offense — now without Carlos Correa, Harrison Bader, Willi Castro, and Ty France — has floundered, ranking just 26th in OPS in August. The Athletics, meanwhile, have gone 8-7, posting the third-best OPS and the 10th-best ERA, and they’ve won three of their last four series.
I recently saw an article from an Athletics fan website proclaiming Lopez as a future Cy Young contender, which seemed far-fetched until I realized that in his last four starts, he’s tossed 24 scoreless innings, walking six and striking out 28 and pitching to a 1.53 FIP across that span. It goes without saying that the 27-year-old can’t keep up that form over a full season, but the advanced numbers now look really good — he ranks in the top quartile in average exit velocity and hard-hit percentage and in the 87th percentile in strikeout rate. He’ll have to worry about Byron Buxton, given that his signature pitch is a slider and Buxton has posted a .636 slugging percentage against sliders this season, but should be effective against the rest of Minnesota’s lineup.
Still, even with Lopez’s recent form, I’d give Ryan the overall edge in the pitching matchup. Ryan has allowed two or fewer earned runs in eight of his last nine starts, pitching to a 2.18 ERA and 2.95 FIP in 53.2 innings across that span, and unlike Lopez, who hadn’t really proven his quality at the MLB level prior to this season, has had three seasons worth 2.5 or more WAR. Advanced statistics are extremely kind to Ryan, as his pitching run value is in the 96th percentile, and his signature four-seam fastball is baseball’s best pitch. The Athletics are a particularly pretty good matchup for him: Nick Kurtz, Brent Rooker, and Shea Langeliers have all posted among their lowest run values against four-seamers (minimum 100 pitches faced).
Athletics at Minnesota Twins pick, best bet
Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-105)
Offense should be stifled as long as the starters remain in the game. Ryan has completed the sixth inning in 13 of his 24 starts and should be effective when he’s on the mound, even against an offense that has been as good in August as the Athletics’ has, and Lopez has pitched seven or more innings in each of his past two starts and is on six days’ rest.
Strong Lean: Byron Buxton 1+ Runs (-125)
It’s likely that Lopez’s shutout inning streak will come to an end at some point, and I think the man to get it done will be the sole offensive All-Star remaining on Minnesota’s roster. Since returning from a rib ailment, the oft-injured Buxton has crossed the plate in four of his seven games.
