Last night, the Cleveland Guardians (64-60) took a 3-1 win over the Arizona Diamondbacks (60-66) to add a slight boost to their Wild Card push. In Tuesday night’s MLB late slate, these teams battle again in the desert as a pair of vulnerable pitchers go toe-to-toe.
Here’s a Diamondbacks vs. Guardians prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Tuesday night’s game.
Diamondbacks vs. Guardians prediction, preview
The Diamondbacks fell to 13-16 since the All-Star Game with last night’s result as their losing streak increased to four consecutive contests. Arizona mustered just one run on Monday, further showing a regression in the scoring column with 126 runs in their last 29 contests, a mark which puts them 19th among all teams. The D-Backs are still 10th in batting average (.249) and 11th in OPS (.739). That hasn’t translated to scoring though, and with a pitching staff that’s struggled with the 17th-ranked ERA (4.28) and 18th-ranked WHIP (1.33) over that span.
The Guardians kept their second-half resurgence rolling at 18-11 and got back into the win column. They now sit just three games back of the final AL Wild Card spot, and if they keep up this form, they may push into the postseason picture. The Guardians still rank ninth in scoring with 138 runs, though they fell to 18th in average (.242) and OPS (.718) with yesterday’s affair. Still, their arms are strong right now with the sixth-best ERA (3.68) and ninth-best WHIP (1.22) since the break. Even on nights with less going for them on offense, the Guardians can find ways to win.
Tonight, lefty Eduardo Rodriguez (5.40 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, 111 SO) takes the mound for Arizona. He faces right-hander Tanner Bibee (4.54 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 124 SO) for Cleveland.
Diamondbacks vs. Guardians pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Diamondbacks as -126 Moneyline favorites in Tuesday’s outing. The Guardians are listed at +104 on the Moneyline with the run total set at 8.5.
Let’s make one thing clear. These pitchers aren’t doing well in the earned run department, so it looks like the over could hold some serious intrigue in this contest. While Bibee comes in around league-average in a lot of advanced metrics, he’s delivering poor run value in the 26th percentile. He’s experienced some poor luck overall with a 3.68 xERA that’s a good deal lower than his actual ERA, but he’s seen some struggles over his last seven starts with a 5.45 ERA and 1.42 WHIP.
Bibee’s not exactly hot, but Rodriguez has really been shelled this year. With second-percentile run value overall along with a 5.92 ERA plus a 1.79 WHIP in his last seven starts, the Diamondbacks’ starter looks like a batter’s dream. Between he and Bibee’s propensity for giving up runs, the scoreboard worker may be in for a long night. I’m taking the over without a second thought in the desert.
Best bet: Over 8.5 runs (-122)
Click the odds on this bet to tail!
