This is the second game of a three-game series in Pittsburgh between the Pirates and visiting Toronto Blue Jays.
Max Scherzer is scheduled to pitch for Toronto while Mitch Keller is slated to start for Pittsburgh.
Blue Jays at Pirates prediction, preview
Max Scherzer has been good… for a 41 year old. The ERA is 3.83 through 54 innings, but the FIP is higher at 4.62 and he’s had difficulty keeping the ball in the yard. He’s already allowed 11 home runs and has an 11.3% barrel rate. The saving grace is the hard-hit rate is only 35.3%. The fastball is still averaging 93.6 mph and the strikeout rate is 24.1%, but it’s a far cry from the Mad Max days.
Seven of the 11 home runs have come off the bat of lefties. The K-BB% is 14.6% lower while the FIP is at 5.48. Scherzer has been better on the road. Seven of the 11 home runs have been served up at home while the FIP is 5.25 despite having a strand rate of 90.5%.
Scherzer has allowed more than three earned runs only once in 10 starts. He has been good recently, going at least six innings in three straight starts while allowing one, two and one earned run. This will be his first time facing Pittsburgh this season.
Against right-handed pitching, the Pirates have struck out at the eighth-highest rate while having the 30th-best ISO. Their wOBA is 29th-best in MLB.
Mitch Keller has been unexciting yet solid this season. The strikeout rate is only 18.6%, but the walk rate is only 6.5% and he’s allowed only 13 home runs in 141.2 innings. The barrel rate is 6.7%. The ERA is up at 4.13, but the FIP is lower at 3.66.
Lefties have given Keller some trouble, as the K-BB% is sub-10% and the FIP is 4.1. He’s been site neutral with almost identical stats across the board. The K-BB% is off by 0.2% while the FIP is 3.66 both at home and on the road.
Keller has allowed more than three earned runs five times. Two of those have come in the last three games, as he allowed six earned runs in Milwaukee and five earned runs in Colorado. Earlier in the season, Keller was pitching six innings on the regular. He’s failed to hit the mark in each of the last four starts. This will be the first time facing Toronto this season.
The Blue Jays have struck out at the highest rate in the league against right-handed pitching, while ranking 13th in ISO. Their wOBA ranks fourth as well.
As for the bullpens, Toronto has the 15th-lowest FIP, while Pittsburgh has the 10th-lowest.
Blue Jays at Pirates pick, best bet
One pitcher is an old and a has-been while the other is meh. That said, both have been pitching well. I don’t expect either to dominate, but I like both staffs to keep the opposing offenses from going ballistic.
