The San Diego Padres (69-55) just suffered a tough series sweep to the Los Angeles Dodgers and fell back to second place in the NL West. They have an opportunity to bounce back and further bury a division rival as they kick off a new series tonight at home against the San Francisco Giants (60-64), who are still in search of an NL Wild Card spot.
Here’s a Padres vs. Giants prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Monday’s nightcap.
Padres vs. Giants prediction, preview
The Padres just dropped three games in a row and now sit 17-11 since the All-Star Game. While it’s unfortunate for San Diego having just dropped a spot in the division standings after just taking hold of first place last week, this series presents a chance to tune up and get back on the right foot before another set against the Dodgers at the end of the week. In the meantime, this homestand gives San Diego an advantage against the Giants as they hold a 38-20 record at Petco Park this season.
The Padres’ batting order fell behind over this last series with nine runs across their three games, including a shutout. However, they still rank among baseball’s top half in scoring since the ASG with 132 runs, 14th-most, and the slash line stats provide more reason to believe they bounce back. They’re fourth in average at .271 with a .755 OPS, eighth-best in the MLB. While the Padres aren’t seeing many returns from power hitting with 22 homers since the break, the fewest of any franchise, they’re reaching base plenty with a .343 OBP and a fantastic plate process which limits strikeouts and brings plenty of walks.
They do face a tough matchup on the mound this evening, but the Giants haven’t seen much consistent success since the early months of the campaign. Since the ASG, they’re just 9-20 overall and only just snapped a seven-game losing streak yesterday. They’re 30-31 on the road and 3-7 across their last 10 games, so at first glance, this looks like a difficult battle tonight.
San Francisco actually does rank 10th in batting average at .246 since the ASG, but they’ve struggled greatly in the other slash line stats with a .699 OPS that falls 20th. Scoring is an issue with just 106 runs across their last 27 games, the third-worst tally in baseball. That issue may end up compounded as Matt Chapman hit the IL with hand inflammation a couple of days ago, so while the Giants weren’t hitting many homers to begin with, they’re now missing one of their better power bats. The lineup also strikes out plenty with the 10th-most since the break, so not much feels like it’s going right at this moment.
Padres vs. Giants pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Padres as -150 Moneyline favorites in Monday’s game. The Giants come in at +123 on the Moneyline with the run total set at 7.5.
The Padres start lefty Nestor Cortes (5.71 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 17 SO), who’s only thrown four games this season as he battled injuries. He faces Giants southpaw Robbie Ray (2.98 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 152 SO), who does have the upper hand in this battle.
At first glance, that starter matchup may indicate San Francisco could emerge with a win tonight. However, assuming Ray makes all the difference undersells the reality of this game. With the Giants’ offense still underperforming to this extent (and lacking Chapman, too), it’s tough to see the bats producing run support for their starter. Ray himself has actually allowed a few more earned runs in recent games than his season-long average with an elevated 3.76 ERA over his last seven starts, though that’s not a major concern given it’s still a respectable figure.
Granted, it’s fair to worry about Cortes’ status here. He’s only thrown 9.1 innings for the Padres after being traded to San Diego last month, but he did allow just three earned runs on nine hits, plus nine strikeouts over that small sample. If you think he’s going to continue improving though, the Padres make sense on the Moneyline even though the value there isn’t stellar. They’re a much better team than the Giants and with Ray on the mound, it’s safer to take this route rather than the -1.5 run line. Watch for San Diego to bounce back on Monday.
Best bet: SD Padres ML (-150)
Click the odds on this bet to tail!
