Following losses on Sunday, the Blue Jays and Pirates will begin a new series against each other for the first time this season.
The Pirates are -122 favorites at home, while the Blue Jays are +100 on DraftKings Sportsbook. The game total is set at over/under seven runs.
Here’s my prediction and pick for Monday’s Pirates vs. Blue Jays matchup.
Pirates vs. Blue Jays prediction
It’s expected to be a pitcher’s duel on Monday in Pittsburgh. The Pirates are sending Paul Skenes to the mound, perhaps the best pitcher in all of baseball, to face Kevin Gausman.
Gausman isn’t a Cy Young candidate, but he has a respectable 3.79 ERA through 142.2 innings this season. He’s been on a good run recently, allowed two or fewer earned runs in four of his past five starts. All five outings were at least six innings, with three topping out at seven full frames.
These recent performances aren’t against lowly teams either. He’s limited the Cubs, Yankees and Tigers during this stretch.
Skenes’ ability doesn’t need much of an introduction. He’s arguably the best pitcher in the majors in just his second season. He has a MLB-leading 2.13 ERA through 148 innings pitched.
The 23-year-old hasn’t pitched up to his standards recently. He allowed four earned runs in two of his last three starts — one against the Brewers and the other against the Rockies. The Blue Jays are a tough team, but it would be quite uncharacteristic for Skenes to struggle for a third time in four games.
The main issue lies with Pittsburgh’s offense. It’s one of the weaker units in the majors, which makes Gausman’s job much easier. This, in turn, makes it difficult for Skenes to get run support.
Skenes could throw seven shutout innings and the Pirates could still lose because the offense doesn’t show up.
Pirates vs. Blue Jays pick, best bet
Skenes should have no issue bouncing back from his recent struggles, but that won’t change the outcome of Monday’s contest. The Pirates will still lose because Gausman will stifle their offense.
The Blue Jays can sneak a run or two past Skenes, or tally a few in the later innings after the bullpen takes over. Either way, it should be a low-scoring game with the Blue Jays winning.
Toronto moneyline (+100) or under seven total runs (-105) are both excellent choices.