If you’re hunting for the best MLB picks and player props August 18, 2025, has to offer, you’re in the right place. Here, you’ll find some plays I have featuring the Houston Astros, Jose Ramiez and Nestor Cortes.
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MLB Picks and Player Props August 18, 2025
Houston Astros over 3.5 runs (-115) vs. Detroit Tigers
I was surprised to see the Astros’ team total set at 3.5 runs (-115) tonight against Jack Flaherty and the Tigers. Flaherty has struggled lately, giving up 11 runs on 16 hits over his last nine innings against the White Sox and Twins. He’ll now face the Astros for the second time this season, after allowing four runs on six hits—including two home runs—through five innings in their previous matchup. It’s also fair to say Houston’s offense is stronger now, with Carlos Correa and Jesús Sánchez added to the lineup.
Flaherty’s biggest issue has been his four-seam fastball. Opponents have tagged it for a .345 wOBA coming into today, and he’s throwing it nearly half the time. Meanwhile, Houston’s projected lineup owns a combined .356 wOBA and .178 ISO against that pitch. Given the matchup and recent trends, I think the Astros are well-positioned to get to Flaherty again and push past their 3.5 team total.
Jose Ramirez 3+ H/R/RBI (+125) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Zac Gallen takes the mound tonight for the Diamondbacks against the Guardians, and his struggles against left-handed hitters could be a problem with José Ramírez in the lineup. Lefties have tagged Gallen for a .355 wOBA, nine of the 24 home runs he’s allowed, and a 4.68 FIP. Ramírez, meanwhile, has been on another level in the second half, posting a .375 wOBA, a .269 ISO, and a 143 wRC+.
Adding to the concern, Gallen has been at his worst at home this season. Given the matchup and Ramírez’s current form, this sets up as a strong spot for him to have another productive night at the plate.
Nestor Cortes under 14.5 outs recorded (+150) vs. San Francisco Giants
I’m taking a shot on Nestor Cortes to go under 15 outs recorded tonight. It’s a low number, but he’s fallen short in both starts since returning. The Padres have managed him cautiously, pulling him after around 75 pitches in each outing.
While the Giants’ offense isn’t particularly intimidating, Cortes’s command issues remain a concern. He’s walking batters at a 5.7 BB/9 clip through 17.1 innings, which makes it tough to work deep into games. If San Diego caps him near 80 pitches again, another early exit feels likely. With his inconsistency and struggles to find the zone, I’m backing the under 14.5 outs recorded.
Good luck with your MLB picks and player props for August 18, 2025!
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