This is the opener of a five-game series in Chicago between the Cubs and visiting Milwaukee Brewers. This is also the first game of a doubleheader on Monday.
Freddy Peralta is scheduled to pitch for Milwaukee while Cade Horton is slated to start for Chicago.
Brewers at Cubs prediction, preview
Freddy Peralta is posting a 2.9 ERA through 136.2 innings this season. The fastball is averaging 94.8 mph while the swinging strike rate is 12.7%. While the strikeout rate has dipped from a few seasons ago, it’s still a respectable 26.1%. Peralta has been good at limiting hard contact for most of his career, and it hasn’t changed this season. The average exit velocity is 87.8 mph, barrel rate is 8.6% and hard hit rate is 33.3%. He’s only allowed 16 home runs. Now, he’s had some luck this season, as the BABIP is .253 while the strand rate is 83.7%. As a result, the FIP is higher at 3.74. Still good, just not great.
Peralta has been better against righties, as the K-BB% is almost 10% higher. He’s also been better at home, as 11 of the 16 home runs have come on the road.
Peralta has allowed more than three earned runs three times. He’s gone at least six innings in 10 of 25 starts. He’s faced Chicago three times this season. The first meeting was at home in early May. He went six innings, walked one and struck out seven without allowing an earned run on four hits. The next meeting was in mid-June in Chicago. He went five innings, walked two, struck out six and allowed three earned runs on two hits. The most recent meeting was three starts ago at home. Peralta went four innings, walked four, struck out three and allowed five earned runs on five hits.
Against right-handed pitching, the Cubs have struck out at the 26th-highest rate while having the fifth-best ISO. Their wOBA is sixth-best in MLB.
Cade Horton has pitched 85 innings this season, his first in MLB. In the minors, the strikeout rate was often near 30%, but he’s down at 19.3% in the majors. Most young pitchers struggle with control, but Horton is posting a 7.8% walk rate and has allowed only seven home runs. The ground ball rate is 46.7%. The ERA is 3.07 while the FIP is 3.74.
The numbers are fairly similar against both righties and lefties. Five of the seven home runs have come off the bat of righties, though. Horton has pretty much been site neutral.
Horton has allowed more than three earned runs three times. Over the last five starts, he’s allowed a total of one earned run. This will be his first time facing Milwaukee this season.
The Brewers have struck out at the 21st-highest rate against right-handed pitching while ranking 19th in ISO. Their wOBA ranks ninth as well.
As for the bullpens, Milwaukee has the ninth-lowest FIP, while Chicago has the 16th-lowest.
Brewers at Cubs pick, best bet
I like both pitchers in this one.
