This is the second game of a three-game series in Detroit between the Tigers and visiting Houston Astros.
Hunter Brown is scheduled to pitch for Houston while Tarik Skubal is slated to start for Detroit.
Astros at Tigers prediction, preview
Hunter Brown has been chef’s kiss this season. He’s averaging a career-high 96.8 mph on the fastball with a strikeout rate of 29.4%. The walk rate is a career-low 7.7% and he’s only allowed 12 home runs in 143 innings. The ERA is 2.45 while the FIP is slightly higher at 2.92. The ground ball rate is 46.1% and he’s done a superb job of limiting hard contact. The average exit velocity is 86.3 mph, barrel rate is a miniscule 5.5% and the hard hit rate is only 32.1%.
Lefties have hit eight of the 12 home runs off Brown but the K-BB% of 21.9% is almost identical to the 21.4% against righties. Brown has essentially been site neutral.
Brown has allowed more than three earned runs three times. He’s held opponents to one or fewer earned runs in 15 of 24 starts. He’s gone at least six innings 16 times. This will be his first time facing Detroit this season.
Against right-handed pitching, the Tigers have struck out at the third-highest rate while having the 10th-best ISO. Their wOBA is 15th-best in MLB.
Tarik Skubal has been Michelin Star kiss this season. The strikeout rate is a robust 32.7%, while the walk rate is a microscopic 4%. The ERA is 2.42, while the FIP is lower at 2.26. He averages 97.7 mph on the fastball and has allowed only 13 home runs in 152.1 innings. The average exit velocity is only 86.2 mph, barrel rate is higher than Brown’s at 8% but the hard hit rate is also down at 32.7%. The swinging strike rate is a whopping 16.7% while the chase rate is 33.6%. Whew. I need a cigarette and I quit decades ago.
12 of the 13 home runs have come off the bat of righties. The FIP is still only 2.42, though, and the K-BB% is 28.9% against righties! Skubal has been site neutral, in that he dominates whenever and wherever.
Skubal has allowed more than three earned runs five times. He’s held opponents to one or fewer earned run in 13 of 24 starts. He’s gone at least six innings 17 times. This will be the first time facing Houston this season.
The Astros have struck out at the 21st-highest rate against left-handed pitching while ranking sixth in ISO. Their wOBA ranks fifth as well.
As for the bullpens, Houston has the 10th-lowest FIP, while Detroit has the 23rd-lowest.
Astros at Tigers pick, best bet
The total of 7 is the lowest on the slate, but for good reason. With two beasts on the mound, I still like the under and will take the home team with Skubal on the mound.
