This is the opener of a three-game series in Detroit between the Tigers and visiting Houston Astros.
Spencer Arrighetti is scheduled to pitch for Houston while Jack Flaherty is slated to start for Detroit.
Astros at Tigers prediction, preview
Spencer Arrighetti missed most of the season due to a fractured thumb. Many probably wish that he didn’t return to the team because the 18.1 innings he’s pitched so far have been brutal. The ERA is 6.38 while he’s walked a whopping 11 batters. That said, the FIP is 4.91 as the strand rate is only 61.6%. The swinging strike rate is 11.7% and it shouldn’t be a surprise that he’s struggled a bit early on as he gets back into the groove. Last season, in 145 innings, the strikeout rate was 27.1% but the walk rate was 10.3%.
Arrighetti has made two starts since returning to action. He went 3.2 innings in the first one with one walk, five strikeouts and five earned runs on 11 hits. In the most recent outing, Arrighetti went five innings, walked five, struck out three and allowed two earned runs on only one hit.
Against right-handed pitching, the Tigers have struck out at the third-highest rate while having the 10th-best ISO. Their wOBA is 15th-best in MLB.
Jack Flaherty isn’t as good as he was last season, and as bad as he’s been this season. Flaherty posted a 3.17 ERA in 162 innings last season with a 3.48 FIP. The BB/9 was a career-low 2.11. In 124.2 innings this season, the BB/9 is back up to 3.54 and the ERA is 4.76, but the FIP is at 4. Last season, the strand rate was 80.9%. It’s at 71% this season. The 20 home runs haven’t helped his cause and he’s been getting blasted with a 12% barrel rate — a career-high and first time over 10% — and 43.9% hard hit rate. The swinging strike rate is still good at 12.4% while the chase rate is solid at 30.3%.
Fourteen of the 20 home runs have been served up at home. Flaherty has been much more effective against righties, as the K-BB% is 11.5% higher while the FIP is 1.57 lower.
Flaherty has allowed more than three earned runs seven times. He allowed five earned runs in each of the last two outings. He faced Houston back in late-April, going five inings, walking two, striking out four and allowing four earned runs on six hits.
The Astros have struck out at the 22nd-highest rate against right-handed pitching while ranking 27th in ISO. Their wOBA ranks 20th as well.
As for the bullpens, Houston has the 10th-lowest FIP, while Detroit has the 23rd-lowest.
Astros at Tigers pick, best bet
I think both pitchers get lit up in this one.
