The 2024 Seattle Seahawks finished the season with 593 pass attempts, the seventh-most in the NFL. The 62.82% pass percentage was the fifth-highest. The defense was decent, allowing the 11th-fewest points per game, so Mike Macdonald must have been pulling out his hair, as he’s a defensive minded coach.
As a result, the offense should see a significant change this season, as Ryan Grubb has been replaced by Klint Kubiak at offensive coordinator while Sam Darnold, Cooper Kupp and Marquez Valdes-Scantling will be new starters at quarterback and wide receiver. The offensive line coaches were also replaced.
How much 11 personnel will be utilized this season in Seattle? Last season, Seattle utilized 11 personnel at the third-highest rate.
Seahawks target share overview
Last season, Macdonald replaced Pete Carroll at head coach. In the 14 seasons of the Carroll era, he had a defense that was tops in points allowed four times. The pass rate was 29th or lower in all those seasons, with three of those under 50%. Interestingly, in both his first and last seasons in Seattle, the defense finished 25th in scoring and those were the only two seasons in which the pass rate was over 60%.
Macdonald was the defensive coordinator for the Baltimore Ravens two seasons before becoming the head man in Seattle, so a more run-centric offense is the goal. That said, that doesn’t mean the pass rate will return to the Carroll golden days.
ESPN’s Brady Henderson wrote back in February, “Instead of Kubiak using his introductory news conference and subsequent radio interviews as a promise to pound the rock, his message centered around offensive balance, with an oft-repeated line about being able to beat defenses in multiple ways.”
Kubiak has been in the league since 2013, but he’s been an offensive coordinator only twice: 2021 Minnesota Vikings and 2024 New Orleans Saints. The 2021 Vikings had a pass rate of 58.54%, 18th in the league. The 2024 Saints were 16th with a pass rate of 56.98%.
Kubiak comes from the Shanahan/Kubiak tree, so an outside zone rush attack with play-action off of it will be the foundation. In New Orleans last season, Kubiak utilized 11 personnel at the lowest rate in the league at 33.04%. In 2021, Minnesota was 28th.
Rick Dennison and John Benton are the new offensive line coaches and the focus for the offense has been simplifying things.
Gregg Bell of The News Tribune quoted tackle Abe Lucas in June, “I’ll put it like this: We’re trying to be elite at very few things, but those few things are what the offense is going to be based around. And that’s the run game.”
New coaches? Check. New scheme? Check. New players? Seattle spent their first-round pick on an offensive guard, Grey Zabel. That said, PFF has the Seahawks offensive line rated 30th heading into the season. I do think there is upside in the unit but expectations should definitely be held in check.
The quarterback situation is the wild card for the Seahawks. Darnold is the starter, replacing Geno Smith, who took his talents to Las Vegas. Darnold’s coming off an impressive season with the Minnesota Vikings in which he completed 66.2% of his passes for 4,319 yards, 35 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Much of the credit goes to Kevin O’Connell, though. O’Connell isn’t in Seattle. Neither is Justin Jefferson nor the Vikings offensive line.
It’s unlikely Darnold attempts more than 500 passes this season, so the overall passing pie will likely shrink from last season. There is also the worst case scenario that needs to be discussed. What if Darnold gets benched for Jalen Milroe at some point?
Milroe is a dual-threat quarterback who has been compared to Lamar Jackson as a rusher, with some saying he’s better. If Milroe gets the nod under center, the passing pie is going to shrink big time.
Now, let’s take a look at how the targets should be distributed in Seattle this season.
Wide receivers
Jaxon Smith-Njibga was the alpha last season, garnering 137 targets with a 24.1% target share. There’s uncertainty due to a new quarterback and scheme, but JSN is the most talented player of the group and should command a target share around 25%, with the possibility of more. That said, JSN ran most of his routes from the slot, but Kubiak has not historically utilized 11 personnel often.
DK Metcalf finished with 108 targets last season with a 21.3% target share in 15 games. He is now in Pittsburgh.
Tyler Locket had 74 targets and a 13% targets share last season. He is now in Tennessee.
Out went Metcalf and Lockett, in come Kupp and Valdes-Scantling.
Kupp received 100 targets and a 26.2% target share in 12 games with the Los Angeles Rams last season. They had no interest in bringing him back. Kupp is 32 years old and will never be vintage Kupp again, but he’s skilled enough to garner targets, although his ability to separate have declined over the years. Somewhere in the low-20s for target share seems likely, at least while he’s healthy.
MVS got 44 targets and an 11.2% target share in 14 games with the New Orleans Saints last season. He’s always been a get-cardio and take-the-top-off-defenses kind of player with his 4.37 40-yard speed. He’s going to get plenty of cardio in 2025.
Tory Horton was selected in the fifth round of the 2025 draft. He’s 6′ 3″ 196 pounds and runs a 4.41 40-yard dash. In college, Horton had a 27.9% target share and has been performing well this offseason. There’s been chatter that he will likely overtake MVS on the depth chart.
Tight ends
Noah Fant led the group with 64 targets and a 13.4% target share. Fant was not re-signed.
AJ Barner was second with 38 targets and a 6.7% target share. He’s 6’6″, 251 pounds and was selected in the fourth round of the 2024 draft. He runs a 4.84 40-yard dash and has been making plays in training camp. Barner is a good blocker and played over 500 snaps his rookie season.
Elijah Arroyo is 6’5″, 250 pounds and was selected in the second round of the 2025 draft. He runs a 4.64 40-yard dash. We’ve been spoiled with the likes of Brock Bowers and Sam LaPorta being instant producers their rookie season, but they are the outliers. He has elevated the depth chart with Fant gone, and maybe that’s an indication of how much faith the front office and coaching staff have in him. In addition, if Kubiak doesn’t use 11 personnel, then two-tight-end sets could be the norm, which would increase the chances of Arroyo making an impact. I’d temper expectations, though.
Running backs
Seattle boasts a formidable one-two punch at running back in Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet. Both players are factors in the passing game.
Walker finished with 53 targets and a 13.8% targets share in 11 games.
Charbonnet garnered 52 targets and a 9.1% target share in 17 games.
When healthy, Walker is going to be the guy, but he’s started 11, 15 and 11 games in his three-year career. Charbonnet is one of the best handcuffs out there.
