All year long, DraftKings Sportsbook offers a wide variety of props, providing bettors a variety of ways to sweat out victories. Some options are slow-burn plays that last multiple days, weeks, or even the course of an entire season. Other bets, though, are set up to be quick hits to boost your bankroll with fast payouts that are either won or lost very quickly. That style of bets provides short-term payouts, instant gratification, and time to flip winnings into new picks. During the dog days of summer, one of the most popular short-term bets is MLB NRFI bets. Let’s take a look at the 12 games on the schedule this Monday night and find a few NRFI (no run first inning) prop bets to back.
On Monday, August 18, DraftKings Sportsbook is also offering a 33% Profit Boost Token to use on a 2+ leg NRFI/YRFI Parlay with minimum odds per leg of -200 or longer. If you’re looking for a way to use that token and level up your winnings, these are my top MLB NRFI bets on the board. To help you find the NRFI plays you like the most, be sure to check out all the starting pitcher matchups on the board.
Houston Astros at Detroit Tigers (-125)
The Astros are in Detroit taking on the Tigers in a matchup of American League division leaders this week. The first game will feature a matchup between Spencer Arrighetti and Jack Flaherty as one of the four games in the wave just before 7:00 p.m. ET.
Even though both teams have strong records, they have scored in the first inning in under 30% of their games. Each team has a 55% NRFI hit rate on the year and each hit an NRFI on Sunday to finish their last series.
In this specific matchup, Flaherty will take the mound first, and he has held opponents scoreless in the first inning in 19 of his 24 games this season and 10 of his 13 home starts.
Arrighetti has only made four starts this year after recovering from a fractured right thumb he suffered back in early April. He has only given up a first-inning run in one of those four games.
With the wind blowing slightly in and both teams trending toward no runs in the first innings, this feels like a strong place to start the week’s MLB NRFI bets.
Seattle Mariners at Philadelphia Phillies (-120)
Another early game that makes sense for one of Monday’s MLB NRFI bets is the first game of the series between the Mariners and Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. Both of the teams in this matchup have good offenses, so it’s not a sure thing, for sure, but both starting pitchers have been very solid in the first inning.
The home team will give the ball to Ranger Suarez, who has not allowed a run in the first inning in 11 straight starts. He has allowed a run in the first inning in just one of his 18 starts this season, although the 29-year-old lefty has run into trouble later in his recent outings, giving up 24 runs over his last six starts overall.
On the other side, Logan Gilbert has not allowed a first-inning run in 10 of his 17 starts (59%), including each of his last five in a row. He’s given up 10 runs over his last four starts, but like Suarez, he has typically escaped the first inning unscathed.
In this NRFI pick, we’re counting on the two strong starting pitchers holding the two good offenses in check for at least the first inning, since they have a pattern of doing that in their last several starts.
Texas Rangers at Kansas City Royals (-105)
The Rangers are taking on the Royals in Kansas City on Monday night in a matchup of teams on the fringe of the AL Wild Card race, hovering around .500 and looking to make a push for the final playoff spot. The Royals will give the ball to veteran Michael Wacha, while the Rangers will go with rookie Jack Leiter in this matchup of righties.
Wacha has been very solid this year with a 3.35 ERA and 3.66 FIP in 24 starts. He has allowed eight total runs in his last six starts with a 2.00 ERA with a 2.84 FIP. He gave up a first-inning run just two starts ago, but he has not allowed a first-inning run in 21 of 24 starts this season (88%).
Leiter hasn’t been quite as good, but he has held teams scoreless in 17 of his 21 first innings (81%) and each of his last five outings.
The Royals and Rangers have both delivered NRFI wins in over 55% of their games this season, but the Royals have been on a weird run of nine games in their last 10 with runs in the first inning for either team. It’s probably just regression to the mean after so many NRFI earlier this season, and I don’t think it will continue on Monday with these two starters on the hill.
BONUS PLAY: Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies (+115)
Playing one of my usual MLB NRFI bets at Coors Field feels too strange, but this line and the math on this pick are too good to overlook. My solution: include it as a bonus NRFI pick and let you decide whether to mix it into a parlay, round robin or as an individual play. It all depends on how frisky you’re feeling to start the week.
The Dodgers’ offense came alive over the weekend in their sweep of the Padres, and they scored in the first inning of each of their last two games. However, they are still only scoring in 35% of their first innings this season. The Rockies have only scored in 24% of their first innings this season.
Kyle Freeland is coming off a very strong outing as he gets the start at home. He threw 7 1/3 shutout innings with just five hits allowed against the Cardinals. He didn’t allow a run in the first inning of either of his last two starts to get to 50% on the year. With the wind blowing out, he could get crushed by Shohei Ohtani and this NRFI could unravel in a hurry, but he could also get through the first if the Dodgers’ resurgence was just a one-series special.
On the other side, Yoshinobu Yamamoto is coming off a rough outing against the Angels, giving up six runs in 4 2/3 innings. He has held opponents scoreless in 16 of 23 starts this season (70%) and should be in a good bounce-back spot.
This is a longshot play as far as NRFI goes, but getting it at plus-money is a fun way to take a fast-hitting longshot play on Monday. If you want more longshot Monday night plays, check out my top home run props, which are also available regularly on DK Network.
