It is a loaded five-game slate of WNBA action across today’s Sunday, August 17th schedule. Tipping off at 6:00 p.m. ET, the Seattle Storm will host the Phoenix Mercury.
Phoenix has climbed to fourth place in the WNBA standings with a 19-13 record, but it has had some struggles of late. Seattle has slid down the standings and dropped to eighth place in the WNBA with a 17-17 record. This will be the fourth matchup between these teams this season, but they last played on June 7th. The Storm are 2-1 in the matchups thus far. The final playoff push is here, and every game carries a bit more weight from this point on.
Looking at tonight’s matchup, the Storm enter as 1.5-point favorites and -125 on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Mercury hold +105 odds of pulling off the upset with the game total set at 164 points.
Mercury at Storm preview
The Mercury are 19-13 on the season, but they are coming off back-to-back losses and have dropped four of their last seven. They rank sixth in the league in scoring at 83.1 points per game, seventh in offensive rating, eighth in field-goal percentage, sixth in three-point percentage and fourth in three-point volume. Defensively, Phoenix is holding opponents to the fourth-fewest points, ranks second in defensive rating, fourth in opponent field-goal percentage and sixth in opponent three-point percentage. It forces the most turnovers per game and turns the ball over at the fourth-lowest rate offensively.
Satou Sabally headlines the scoring production at 17.3 points per game along with 6.6 rebounds, 2.4 assists and 1.4 steals. Alyssa Thomas is the WNBA’s all-time triple-double leader and is averaging 16.1 points while leading the team with 9.0 assists and 8.6 rebounds. She has been on a roll as of late, with three triple-doubles in her past five games, and she is capable of scaling up her role to whatever the team needs. Kahleah Copper made a midseason return from a knee injury and is adding 15.4 points while shooting 40.8% from beyond the three-point arc. Veteran DeWanna Bonner has also made her impact felt after starting the season on the Fever, and she is averaging 11.9 points and 4.6 rebounds across her first 13 games with the team.
The Seattle Storm were 16-11 at the end of July, but they have slipped to 17-17 and are just 3-7 over their past 10. Seattle looked to solidify its win-now intentions by trading for Brittney Sykes from the Washington Mystics. Across her first four games with Seattle, Sykes has tallied 15.3 points and 3.3 assists. Nneka Ogwumike leads the team in scoring with 18.2 points and 7.3 rebounds per game. Skylar Diggins continues to produce in her age-34 season, adding 16.0 points, 6.0 assists and 2.7 rebounds per contest. Erica Wheeler and Gabby Williams also average in double-figures, with Williams adding 4.5 rebounds and 4.4 assists.
As a team, the Storm rank ninth in scoring with 81.7 points per game. They rank fifth in field-goal percentage, seventh in three-point percentage, ninth in three-point volume and eighth in offensive rating. Seattle is holding opponents to 79.9 points per game, which ranks fifth in the WNBA, and it ranks eighth in opponent field-goal percentage, seventh in opponent three-point percentage and fifth in defensive rating. It forces the second-most turnovers and tallies the fewest turnovers offensively.
Mercury at Storm prediction, pick
Neither of these teams are in their desired form as they head down the home stretch of the season. Seattle has the 2-1 season advantage, both straight-up and against the spread. Seattle is 1-6 against the spread in its last seven, while Phoenix is 3-4 over this stretch. With both sides showing some variance in their recent level of play, I am leaning toward the game total and backing the under of 164 tonight.
There is a more consistent baseline for each of these teams’ defenses. Both sides are also opportunistic in forcing turnovers and careful about limiting these opportunities offensively, which will make for an interesting battle. The three previous matchups finished with scoring totals of 140, 147 and 166 to this point. Seattle shot 54.5% from beyond the three-point arc, and the two teams combined for 24 made free throws in the matchup that went over this 164 total.
Seattle is averaging 82.2 points per game over its past six games, while Phoenix is averaging 80.2 points over the same stretch. Expect both teams to dig in defensively and attempt to set the tone on this side of the ball. Count on points being hard to come by and for the first team to crack 75 to find the path to a win.
