Major League Baseball’s Players’ Weekend wraps up on Sunday with the final games of some fun series. While most of the games on the schedule start early, five games start at 3:00 p.m. ET or later. The 10 teams in those contests provide some good home run props to consider, especially with some homer-happy venues in play. After looking at the matchups, environments, odds and current form of the players on the board this Sunday night, my favorite home run props are from Blaze Alexander, Zach Neto, and Julio Rodriguez.
Just a quick reminder before we step to the plate and swing for the fences with these home run props — all home run props are long-shot bets by nature. Even the best home run hitters are more likely not to hit a home run in any single game, never making home run props “safe” picks. While there are some key indicators to consider, these picks remain volatile plays.
Home run props can be a fun part of your betting strategy, but they shouldn’t be heavily relied on since they’re very uncertain. What makes home run props exciting is that long odds yield big returns when they do smash. I also typically play home run props in round robins at a small unit size, which boosts the ceiling of your betting card even higher if multiple home run props hit on any given day.
Breaking down the numbers and matchups, here is why I like these three home run props for Sunday.
Best HR Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Blaze Alexander to record 1+ home runs (+425)
The Diamondbacks are in Coors Field, closing out their four-game series against the Rockies. They’ll take on Antonio Senzatela, who is a favorable matchup for home run props, and I love getting Blaze Alexander at over +400.
Alexander has been one of the key young bats who has gotten playing time since the Dbacks shuffled their roster by trading off pieces at the deadline.
In his 54 games at Triple-A, Alexander had eight homers and a .402 wOBA before his promotion. He hit .200 with no homers through his first 22 games, but he had turned things around since August 1, hitting .288 with four homers, a 48.6% hard-hit rate, and a .416 wOBA.
He only has one hit in the series so far, but he had two homers in Texas, including this blast:
Alexander has hit three of his four homers against righties and three of his four homers on the road. While facing Senzatela is a righty-righty matchup, righties have had better power production against Senzatela than lefties.
Senzatela has gone 4-14 in his 22 games this season with a 7.34 ERA and 5.70 FIP. He has served up 19 homers, and righties have hit 11 of those 19 home runs in just 45% of plate appearances on that side of the split.
Alexander is moving up to second in the order with Ketel Marte getting the day off, and hitting between Geraldo Perdomo and Corbin Carroll should set him up for success for this long shot in Sunday afternoon’s home run props.
Zach Neto to record 1+ home runs (+310)
Coors Field definitely deserves its homer-happy reputation with the elevation included, but Sutter Health Park has also been a great spot to pinpoint power matchups this year. The Athletics host the Angels in the third game of their AL West series, and from that matchup, I like Zach Neto’s home run props against lefty Jeffrey Springs.
Neto homered on Friday in the series opener and has posted 20 homers and 20 stolen bases in each of the last two years.
Most of his homers have come off righties and at home, but I’m willing to go against those splits to pick him up on the road for this matchup at this price. He has five homers in his last 12 games with a .265 batting average and 51.4% hard-hit rate. He’s a regular in the leadoff spot for the Halos and gets more at-bats as a result.
His 20/20 season is even more impressive when you remember he started the year on the injured list with a shoulder injury and didn’t make his season debut until three weeks into the year.
Springs is a good matchup for Neto and the Angels’ other righties since he has given up 23 homers in 32 starts. Righties have 20 of those 23 homers and a .309 wOBA against him on the season. Thirteen of the 23 homers have happened at Sutter Health Park, where Springs has given up a .307 wOBA.
Neto should be in a good spot to deliver a win in these home run props at a good price for Sunday afternoon.
Julio Rodriguez to record 1+ home runs (+380)
The weekend concludes with a Sunday Night Baseball matchup at BB&T Ballpark at Historic Bowman Field in Williamsport, Pennsylvania. The Mariners and Mets split the first two games in their series and will now face off in the 2025 MLB Little League Classic presented by New York Life. The stadium opened in 1926 and hosted minor league games for years before renovations prior to the inaugural MLB Little League Classic in 2017 brought it up to Major League standards.
The pitching matchup features veteran right-handers who are trending in opposite directions. On the season, George Kirby and Clay Holmes have the same 3.71 ERA, but Kirby has gone 7-1 with a 2.42 ERA and 54 strikeouts over 48 1/3 innings in his past eight starts, while Holmes is 1-2 with a 5.45 ERA in his past eight outings.
Holmes has only given up 12 homers on the year, but his 1.65 WHIP and 43.0% hard-hit rate over his last seven starts makes him a better matchup to attack than Kirby.
Of the Mariners, Cal Raleigh has the shortest odds on the board at +265, but I’m going with Rodriguez for better value. I think he’ll thrive on the big stage and his infectious joy playing the game is a great fit for Players’ Weekend and the Little League Classic.
Rodriguez has been a regular in my DFS fantasy baseball lineups since early July as he turned his season around after a slow start (like he has every season in the majors). He has 24 homers on the year, and 13 of those have come in his last 31 games. He has a 54.3% hard-hit rate over that stretch and an average exit velocity of 94 miles per hour, which would rank sixth in the majors if he kept it at that level all season.
Rodriguez hasn’t homered in this series against the Mets, but does have 10 hard-hit balls and an 83.3% hard-hit rate over his last four games.
He’s crushing everything right now and has strong splits on the road and against righties, which is the situation that he’ll be in for Sunday night’s home run props.
