The countdown to the 2025 college football season inches closer. There have been plenty of shakeups around the conferences, with the Mountain West in the midst of this. Boise State will be looking to defend its back-to-back conference titles and enter as the favorite again this season. UNLV, San Jose and Fresno State are also expected to be in the mix among some sleeper teams.
Let’s dive into the outlook for the conference ahead of the 2025 college football season and look at which bets on DraftKings Sportsbook make the most sense.
Mountain West College Football Betting Preview
Boise State (-150 to win Mountain West)
The Broncos are coming off a 12-2 season last year in which they went 7-0 in conference play and earned an appearance in the expanded College Football playoffs. Ashton Jeanty was the program’s first Heisman candidate in over a decade, but he will be suiting up for the Las Vegas Raiders this year. However, 75% of the offense and 59% of their defense are returning, with the 67% overall return rate marking the best in the conference and 13th best in the country. Jeanty leaves some big shoes to fill, but quarterback Maddux Madsen, tight ends Matt Lauter, and key defensive standouts Jayden Virgin-Morgan and A’Marion McCoy are all back. They also added a lot of offensive linemen.
They continued to add to their talent pool by bringing in Fresno State RB transfer Malik Sherrod and several defensive talents from FCS teams. Even with the loss of Jeanty, Boise State has the strongest running back room in the conference, headlined by Dylan Riley and Sire Gaines, who showed flashes in limited chances last year. Gaines only played three games last year due to injury, totaling 200 yards on 23 touches.
There are some concerns with the wide receivers, with no returning player averaging more than 12.5 yards per catch. Tight end Lauter looks to be the most reliable pass catcher. Madsen will look to build off of his 3,018 passing yards and 23 touchdowns from last year.
Spencer Danielson took the team to the playoffs in his first season and opened the year ranked 25th in the AP Poll. Expectations are high, but Boise State has the highest floor in the conference and a pathway to exceeding last year’s success. Don’t expect the program to appear satisfied, and approach this season with the same level of desire. They have a difficult schedule, which includes a matchup against Notre Dame, but this also allows a clear path to bulking up their playoff resume. I am backing Boise State to earn the Group 5 playoff spot again this season.
Best Bet: Boise State to make the CFB Playoffs (+180)
UNLV (+700 to win Mountain West)
The praise for Barry Odom should be even louder for the job he has done since taking the UNLV head coaching position ahead of the 2023 season. The Rebels had not produced a winning record since 2013 and had not won more than eight games since 1982. Odom led the program to a 9-5 record in his first season and followed this up with an 11-3 record last year, in which UNLV climbed to as high as 19th in the AP Poll. Unfortunately, Odom took his talents to Purdue University, and Dan Mullen will be stepping in as head coach. Mullen won at least eight games in eight of his 13 seasons across his head coaching tenure at Mississippi State and Florida, and brought in some impressive talent to jump-start the program under his vision.
Sixteen former blue-chip recruits joined UNLV, headlined by Michigan QB Alex Orji, Virginia QB Anthony Colandrea, Utah RB Jaylon Glover, five notable wide receivers and eight expected defensive talents. Only 32% of the roster from last year stuck around, but Mullen welcomed this as a clean slate and was able to bring in what he views as his guys. The talent level is there, but there are fair questions regarding how it will all fit together. UNLV is one of the bigger question marks across college football, with a wide range in how its season could go. Ultimately, I am backing Mullen’s track record and the talent he brought in. There may be some early growing pains, but expect the Rebels to find their stride and finish right in the mix of what the new expectation for the program is.
Best Bet: Over 8.5 Wins (-105)
San Jose State (+700 to win Mountain West)
Ken Niumatalolo walked into a difficult situation in his first season as San Jose State’s head coach last year. The team ranked 129th in returning production, and there were vocal concerns over his history of running a triple-option offense. But the Spartans managed to finish last season 7-6 with a quick-passing offense and a bend-but-don’t-break defense. San Jose returns 54% of their roster heading into this season. This includes leading passer Walker Eget, leading rusher Floyd Chalk IV, most of the starting offensive line and 14 of the 22 defenders who logged a start last year.
Four key transfer wide receivers were brought in, headlined by California’s Mason Starling and Purdue’s Leland Smith, as well as a pair of JUCO additions. Washington’s Caleb Presley and USC’s Maliki Crawford were added to cover up a secondary that lost four of their top five players. San Jose State lost several of its best players from last year, such as WR Nick Nash, CB DJ Harvey, and DE John Ward, but addressed these holes as well as they could.
The results last season should give the program confidence to build off, and it is in an overall better place than a year ago. The known star power is lower than last season, but there is more depth and overall continuity. The DraftKings team total feels right on the money for what their outlook is, but I was encouraged by the level of production that Niumatalolo led the program to last year. Look for them to build off this and inch out another win from last year’s record.
Best Bet: Over 7.5 wins (-105)
Fresno State (+1000 to win Mountain West)
Matt Entz is stepping into his first season as Fresno State’s head coach, which marks the program’s fourth head coach in the past five seasons. He is most known for his time as North Dakota State’s head coach, and led the program to the playoffs in all five years. He posted a 60-11 overall record, a 15-3 playoff record, and earned two National Championships. Known for his ability to build culture, Fresno State is looking for Entz to provide some stability to the program after some variable results over the past few seasons.
The Bulldogs are returning 41% of last year’s roster, but they lost their top two passers, top three receivers, top three offensive linemen and 11 of the 16 defenders with over 300 snaps logged. Temple and Rice transfer E.J. Warner, son of Kurt Warner, has been named the starting quarterback. He has some interception issues to clean up, with 37 tallied across 32 starts, but has nearly 9,000 passing yards and 58 passing touchdowns to his name at the collegiate level. Former four-star running back Rayshon Luke transferred in from Arizona, and a pair of intriguing sophomore receivers joined the squad. In the long run, it feels like Fresno State has the right guy at the helm. But Warner’s turnover issues aren’t a simple fix, and Temple and Rice went a combined 10-26 with him as the starter. Don’t be shocked if Sacramento State transfer Carson Conklin makes a push to steal the job, and for some deeper issues to pop up with the roster in the short term.
Best Bet: Under 6.5 Wins (+100)
Colorado State (+1600 to win Mountain West)
Jay Norvell enters his fourth season as Colorado State’s head coach after an interesting 2024 season. On one hand, the Rams went 8-5, which marked the program’s best record since 2014 and earned their first bowl appearance in eight years. On the other hand, they beat bad teams and struggled to look the part against higher levels of talent. The Rams went 8-1 and averaged 29.9 points against teams ranked 91st or worse in the SP+ rankings. Against teams in the top 90, they went 0-4 and averaged just 12 points per game. Even still, their 8-5 record was the best the program has produced in a decade, and Norvell looks intent on building off this.
Colorado State brought in several smaller school stars and a handful of former blue-chip prospects through the transfer portal. Quarterback Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi threw for 2,796 yards and 14 touchdowns last year and is entering his fourth year with the program. However, only one defensive starter and one of their top five wide receivers are returning for the 2025 season. Theoretically, the Rams did as well as they possibly could to bring in win-now replacements, but this is easier said than done. With the quarterback and head coach remaining in place and some upgrades in talent across the roster, the win total feels too low for Colorado State. Even if they take a slight step back, the Rams can still achieve this, and Norvell deserves the benefit of the doubt after improving the program’s win total each season he has been in charge. Their schedule is not overly intimidating, and there is a path to the Rams matching last year’s record.
Best Bet: Over 6.5 Wins (+130)
Air Force (+1600 to win Mountain West)
From 2021 to 2023, Air Force went a combined 29-10 and peaked as high as 17th in the AP Poll. They then took a massive step back last season after ranking last nationally in returning production. A total of 42 different players made their first career start for Air Force last year. They got off to a 1-7 start to the season, but showed some encouraging flashes down the stretch to finish 5-7. They’re returning 50% of their production this year, made up of 57% of the offense and 43% of the defense. This includes star defender Payton Zdroik and expected starting quarterback Josh Johnson. Troy Calhoun also remains at the helm as head coach, where he has served since the 2007 season.
As has come to be expected of Air Force, the team attempted just 138 total pass attempts last season. John Busha, Quentin Hayes and Johnson each spent time under center last year with the option offense in full effect. Johnson and Hayes are battling for the starting job and could end up splitting it depending on what direction the Falcons choose to go.
Their offensive line improved throughout the season and returns most of the core, and there is a large collection of ball carriers and playmakers in the backfield. They ranked second in all of college football in time of possession last year despite averaging just 18.9 points per game. The Falcons have a unique playstyle that forces opponents to enter with a much different game plan. The quarterback position is a question mark, but they will be dominant in the trenches on both sides of the ball.
While I am not entirely sold on Air Force climbing back to the double-digit win total they produced in 2021 and 2022, expect them to benefit from the continuity and get back to finishing with a winning record this year.
Best Bet: Over 5.5 Wins (-195)
Hawaii (+2000 to win Mountain West)
A staple of late-night college football viewership, Hawaii returns 53% of its production, including 65% of the defense. Timmy Chang is entering his fourth year as head coach and led the team to a 5-7 record last year. This was the best winning percentage the program has produced in his tenure, and there is some buzz that the program could catapult to new heights with Micah Alejado expected to step in as the starting quarterback. The Bishop Gorman product threw 125 career touchdowns in high school with just four interceptions and served as a redshirt last year. He was thrust into action when starting quarterback Brayden Schager suffered a major injury. Across one start and some change, Alejado completed 49 of his 70 passes for 585 yards, six touchdowns and zero interceptions. If he were larger than his 5-foot-10 and 180-pound frame, Alejado likely would be suiting up for a big-time program. But it has been quite a bit of time since Hawaii has had someone with his level of arm talent. Leading wide receivers Pofele Ashlock and Nick Cenacle are each returning, in addition to four linemen with starting experience.
On the defensive side of the ball, 11 of the 20 players with over 200 snaps are returning. This includes pass rushers Elijah Robinson and Jackie Johnson III, linebackers Logan Taylor and Jamih Otis and nickel back Elijah Palmer. They added a few key pieces in the transfer portal and have the framework of this being the best Hawaii defense in quite some time — even if the bar is low. Whether the flashes Alejado showed last season were legitimate will dictate the Rainbow Warriors’ ceiling this season. Their schedule is filled with toss-up games that are expected to go right down to the wire. I am buying into it being legitimate and backing Hawaii to make more noise than most are expecting this season.
Best Bet: Over 6.5 Wins (+145)
San Diego State (+3000 to win Mountain West)
Sean Lewis took over as the San Diego State head coach last season and went 3-9 overall and 2-5 in conference play. This marked the program’s worst record since 2008. To be fair, Lewis did not walk into an easy situation and was unable to make something out of nothing. For better or worse, 53% of their production is returning, including 70% of the defense. However, this is the same defense that gave up 29.6 points per game and 421.3 average yards of offense last year. The Aztecs did add Hawaii DT transfer Malachi Finau, Grand Valley State DE Niles King, and Incarnate Word LB Mister Williams with the hopes that this will improve the defensive unit.
San Diego State will have a cleaner slate on the offensive end with a new quarterback and almost entirely new skills group. Michigan transfer Jayden Denegal appears to be the top choice for starting QB, but dual-threat QB Bert Emanuel Jr. is also in play after transferring from Central Michigan. Last year’s top three running backs and seven of the top eight wide receivers and tight ends are no longer with the program. They added Coastal Carolina transfer Christian Washington at running back and will count on Jordan Napier, Jerry McClure and Myles Kitt-Denton to produce at wide receiver.
The offensive line has good size and plenty of experience, but wasn’t the most effective last year. The pressure will be on Lewis this season after an underwhelming first year. It is difficult to fully buy into all these pieces fitting together and raising the ceiling by a significant margin. The win total has fallen for three straight seasons, and the pathway does not look much easier this year.
Best Bet: Under 4.5 Wins (+120)
Wyoming (+4000 to win Mountain West)
Jay Sawvel took over Wyoming last season after Craig Bohl led the program for the past 10 years. They dropped from 9-4 season in Bohl’s final season to 3-9 in Sawvel’s first year. The results were even more concerning than the raw record, with their offensive SP+ rating dropping to its lowest since the 1940s. The Cowboys showed some signs of life late in the year, but lost 11 of the 14 players who logged over 250 snaps. Wyoming brought in 13 transfers and three JUCO additions on the defensive side of the ball. Eight of the 13 transfers come from the FCS level or lower.
The Cowboys’ offense returns with some continuity, with the hopes that the production can be better this season. Redshirt freshman Kaden Anderson took over at quarterback late last season and will return this year. Only one starter on the offensive line is no longer with the team, and they have plenty of size at the pass-catching spots. But the size did not translate to production last year, with Wyoming being held to zero or fewer yards in 36% of their offensive snaps. There seems to be too much good faith shown in the previous roster showing improvement, and not enough active steps to make the roster better for my liking. The program will need to see some signs of improvement to continue showing confidence in Sawvel, but expectations should remain tempered.
Best Bet: Under 5.5 Wins (-160)
Utah State (+8000 to win Mountain West)
A new era for Utah State football will begin this year with Bronco Mendenhall taking over as head coach. Blake Anderson, who served as head coach from 2021-23, was placed on leave shortly before last season, forcing Nate Dreiling to step in as the interim head coach. The program went 4-8 last year, and Dreiling is now serving as the linebacker coach for Oklahoma. Mendenhall served as the head coach of the University of New Mexico last year and has 19 years of head coaching experience. He will be looking to uplift a program that is coming off three straight losing seasons after winning nine or more games five times from 2012-21.
The Utah State roster does not return any player who tallied more than six starts last year, with their 31% returning production ranking last in the conference. Mendenhall brought in nearly 30 transfers, including six players following him over from New Mexico. Defensive tackle Gabriel Iniguez Jr., linebacker John Miller and cornerback Noah Avinger are expected to be the foundation of the defense. Bryson Barnes is returning at quarterback and showed some encouraging flashes to close down the year. Miles Davis transferred in from BYU, while Javen Jacobs came from New Mexico, and they should lead the rushing production.
The offensive line is a complete blank slate. Mendenhall has a solid track record and is a creative football mind, but there are very few sure things about this entire roster. With so much uncertainty, there seems to be far more ways the season could go wrong than everything working out as designed. The win total feels about right, but I am fading their outlook in the short term until proven differently.
Best Bet: Under 4.5 Wins (-160)
New Mexico (+15000 to win Mountain West)
New Utah State head coach Bronco Mendenhall leaves behind a New Mexico program after a 5-7 record last year, which marked the program’s best record since 2016. Jason Eck will step in as head coach after leading Idaho to 26 wins and three playoff appearances over the past three seasons. This will be a leap in competition level, and likely a tougher job, with New Mexico only having won more than seven games once since 2007. Eck brought in 11 Big Sky transfers along with him, including Idaho quarterback Jack Layne and Idaho running back Deshaun Buchanan. The two best defensive players on Idaho also followed him in Keyshawn James-Newby and Jaxton Eck, the head coach’s son. The offensive line is big and experienced, and a few different running backs were brought in with the expectation that this will be a run-heavy system.
Defensive end Gabriel Lopez returns, along with standout linebacker Dimitri Johnson, and will be expected to set the baseline for the defense. A few other notable transfer additions were brought in at the defensive line. There is greater concern in the secondary after two consecutive seasons in which New Mexico ranked 128th or worse in defensive SP+. There are no clear fixes on paper for this, but a new defensive system could make all the difference in the results. The Big Sky still deserves respect, but this feels like a situation in which there could be a pretty widespread wake-up call to the difference in talent. The Lobos will need to get out of the gates quickly this year, as the wins will be difficult to find later on in the season.
Best Bet: Under 3.5 Wins (-135)
Nevada (+15000 to win Mountain West)
Jeff Choate took over at Nevada last year and is set for his second season. The Wolf Pack impressed early on, going 3-4 to start the season, including defeating CFB playoff-bound SMU, Oregon State and Troy. They lost their final six games to finish 3-10 on the year, but had a respectable 28-21 loss to Boise State during this stretch. Nevada lost offensive coordinator Matt Lubick and 18 starters this offseason.
Seven players with FBS starting experience transferred into the program, with some notable attention paid to the trenches. Chubba Purdy is returning at quarterback for his second season with Nevada, with injuries derailing his collegiate career to this point. Marcus Bellon also returns after over 500 receiving yards last year and will be paired with North Texas transfer Nick Rempert and Texas Tech transfer Jordan Brown at the wide receiver spot. The Wolf Pack have gone just 7-30 over the last three seasons and will open the year against second-ranked Penn State. While more winnable games are deeper in the schedule, there has not been enough of a sample size of Purdy serving as an adequate starting quarterback. The offensive coordinator change is noteworthy, and it feels the rest of the conference is in better standing. Expect the wins to be difficult to come by and for another year of regrouping to occur in Reno.
Best Bet: Under 3.5 Wins (+120)
