The wait is finally over. After five years in the UFC, Khamzat “Borz” Chimaev will finally challenge for a UFC Championship. Undisputed Middleweight king, Dricus Du Plessis, is defending his title against Chimaev in the Main Event of UFC 319.
Here is my best bet for Saturday’s UFC Middleweight Championship between Du Plessis vs. Chimaev.
Khamzat Chimaev to Win by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission (-140)
Du Plessis is a versatile fighter who has consistently proven himself to be one of the best Middleweights in the world. But when Chimaev is at his best, he is a flat-out better all-around fighter.
Every fight is different, but let’s compare how they each did against their common opponent: Robert Whittaker. Whittaker landed 31 significant strikes before Du Plessis knocked him out in the second round. “The Reaper” only landed two significant strikes before Chimaev submitted him one minute and 26 seconds into the contest. Chimaev fights with a level of urgency and pace that few, if any, can match in the sport.
In this matchup, DDP may be the physically bigger guy, but Chimaev is taller by one inch. Du Plessis averages more significant strikes per minute (6.12 vs. 5.36), but Chimaev is a way more accurate striker. “Borz” lands his strikes at a 58 percent clip, 10 percent better than DDP. On the ground, Chimaev averages 2.8 submissions per 15 minutes while averaging 4.31 takedowns.
Chimaev being a -265 favorite as the challenger is extremely telling of his talent. He is one of the most hyped up fighters to challenge for a title in history. Another significant aspect that often gets overlooked is Chimaev’s defense on the feet. He allows 3.25 significant strikes per minute, 1.75 fewer than DDP.
Chimaev has finished 12 of his 14 opponents and doesn’t seem to be slowing down anytime soon. Getting him at -140 on DraftKings Sportsbook to win this fight by KO/TKO/DQ or submission is good value. That is because, with Chimaev’s aggressive nature, he is always looking for the finish.
