Major League Baseball’s Players’ Weekend continues this Saturday with a full slate of action. Five games are on the schedule for the afternoon with 10 more under the lights. Six of the 10 matchups are divisional contests, and the familiar matchups make the weekend especially exciting. There are so many storylines to follow and also plenty of options to consider for home run props. With warm weather and hitter-friendly conditions, it should be a good summer night of offense. After looking at the matchups, environments, odds and current form of the players on the board this Saturday night, my favorite home run props are from Riley Greene, Mickey Moniak, and Brent Rooker.
Just a quick reminder before we step to the plate and swing for the fences with these home run props — all home run props are long-shot bets by nature. Even the best home run hitters are more likely not to hit a home run in any single game, never making home run props “safe” picks. While there are some key indicators to consider, these picks remain volatile plays.
Home run props can be a fun part of your betting strategy, but they shouldn’t be heavily relied on since they’re very uncertain. What makes home run props exciting is that long odds yield big returns when they do smash. I also typically play home run props in round robins at a small unit size, which boosts the ceiling of your betting card even higher if multiple home run props hit on any given day.
Breaking down the numbers and matchups, here is why I like these three home run props for Saturday.
Best HR Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Riley Greene to record 1+ home runs (+350)
Even though I’m a big fan of Zebby Matthews and highlighted the young righty as one of my top MLB DFS plays of the day, he has been prone to giving up home runs. Greene’s home run props are still over +300 after a little bit of a slump, but he has plenty of power potential.
Greene has already set a personal best with 28 homers on the season in his 120 games. He is hitting a solid .267 overall with a .350 wOBA and 43.8% hard-hit rate. His 17.5% barrel rate would be a new career best. Of his 28 homers, 16 have come on the road and a whopping 26 have come against right-handed pitching.
His most recent homer came on Thursday in the first game of this four-game set.
Greene does have an elevated strikeout rate at 31.8%, which has frustrated Tigers fans and fantasy managers throughout the season. His power numbers are there when he does make contact, though, which is all that matters for home run props like this one.
Matthews is a little bit like Greene in that he has lots of strikeouts and lots of home runs, but from the other side of the equation. He has a 30% strikeout rate on the year but has also given up a 10.7% barrel rate and 40.2% hard-hit rate, which has resulted in seven homers against him in his nine starts, including three solo shots in his last outing against the Yankees.
Two of those homers were off the bat of lefties, so Greene should be in a good place for home run props this Saturday night.
Mickey Moniak to record 1+ home runs (+360)
The Rockies are hosting the Diamondbacks for a four-game series during Players’ Weekend, and the two teams split the first two games of the series. On Saturday, the Rockies will look to make it two wins in a row as they face Ryne Nelson.
Nelson is 6-3 on the season with a 3.46 ERA, but he has struggled on the road, where he has a 4.93 ERA, 4.97 FIP and nine home runs allowed. He has also allowed six homers in his last six starts, so the Rockies are a good spot to shop for home run props on Saturday. While I’m a huge fan of Hunter Goodman at +320, I also like Moniak at a little bit longer odds.
Moniak has 18 homers this year in a resurgent season in Colorado.
He’s hitting a solid .261 with his career-high 18 dingers and has a .345 wOBA. Since he plays at Coors Field, it’s not surprising that most of his long balls have been at home. He has 11 home runs and a .303 batting average at Coors for a robust .399 wOBA. He has five homers in his last 20 games since the All-Star break with a 42.9% hard-hit rate over that span.
Nelson actually has good reverse-splits against lefties like Moniak, but they have hit five of the 12 homers he has allowed. Since Nelson has been struggling on the road, this should be a good spot for Moniak to deliver on his home run props, which come at good value for Coors.
Brent Rooker to record 1+ home runs (+220)
I highlighted Rooker in my top MLB DFS picks of the day, since he’s on the strong side of just about all his splits in Saturday night’s contest at home at homer-friendly Sutter Health Park against lefty Tyler Anderson and the Angels.
Rooker has 24 homers on the season, including three in his last 15 contests. He is 17-for-60 (.283) with a .362 wOBA over those 15 games. He also has favorable splits at home and against lefties on the season, as I highlighted in targets. He also will be swinging a sweet custom bat:
Rooker has a good history against Tyler Anderson, hitting .357 (5-for-14) with four walks and two homers against him. Anderson has also had a rough season overall. He has a 4.63 ERA and 5.51 FIP in his 23 starts for the Angels and has surrendered 26 homers. Only Zack Littell and Jake Irvin have given up more dingers this season than Anderson, and righties like Rooker have done most of the damage with 16 of those homers to go with a .313 wOBA.
Rooker’s home runs props are a little shorter than I typically like to target, but he has so many things going in his favor that I’m still ready to back him at this number on Saturday.
