For the third time this WNBA season, two of the league’s contenders duke it out in a rematch of last year’s Finals. At 2 p.m. EST today, the Minnesota Lynx host the New York Liberty at Target Center in what should be a great battle between top squads.
Here’s a Lynx vs. Liberty prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Saturday’s contest.
Lynx vs. Liberty preview, prediction
Minnesota Lynx
The Lynx are still far and away the favorites for the WNBA title with a 27-5 record — six more wins than the next-closest teams. They’re flat-out dominant, averaging a league-best 87.0 PPG while shooting better than any other franchise both from the field and from deep. Minnesota moves the ball exceedingly well with WNBA-leading assist percentage and assist/turnover ratio as well, but they aren’t only great on offense. Their defense also locks down opponents with the fewest points per game allowed across the W, so it’s not shocking to see why they have a 14.5 net rating that’s over double that of the next-closest franchise.
Napheesa Collier leads the charge with MVP-caliber production, but remains sidelined today due to an ankle injury. As the WNBA’s leading scorer with 23.5 points, the forward’s production is hard to replicate. It hasn’t mattered while she’s missed time though as the Lynx ride a five-game winning streak into this contest. In the meantime, guards Courtney Williams and Kayla McBride are pulling their weight with 13.9 points and a team-high 6.3 assists as well as 14.8 PPG for the latter. DiJonai Carrington, acquired via trade three games ago, also averages 13.3 points with the team so far.
New York Liberty
The Liberty are another great team and look like they could very well make another deep playoff run. They’re the reigning champs for a reason, and really, their 21-12 doesn’t do the team justice since they’ve missed Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones for significant lengths of time this year. Despite that, New York still ranks second in scoring with 86.7 points on average while shooting the third-best marks from the field and three-point range. They’re second-best in assist percentage though they turn the ball over more than today’s opponent, but the Liberty still have the WNBA’s third-best net rating of 6.6. However, they’re seventh in opponent points per game.
Breanna Stewart remains out with a knee injury and Isabelle Harrison will miss this contest due to a concussion. The Liberty will surely lean on former MVP Jonquel Jones with her 14.2 points and team-high 8.7 boards per game. Of course, star guard Sabrina Ionescu leads the way with 19.3 points and 5.8 assists as she orchestrates the offense. Natasha Cloud brings 9.9 points with 5.5 assists, and Emma Meesseman has emerged since making her New York debut six games ago with 16.2 points and 6.5 boards per night.
Lynx vs. Liberty pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Lynx as 1.5-point favorites at home in this one with -120 odds to win on the Moneyline. The Liberty are listed at even odds to win with a game total of 166 points.
These teams last danced on August 10 in a similar position with both Collier and Stewart out injured. The Lynx fell behind at half in that one but rallied with a 30-point third quarter to retake the lead and eventually claim an 83-71 victory. However, that may not happen again today.
New York had the answers to Minnesota’s offense through the first half of that last game and have surely found ways to adjust thanks to head coach Sandy Brondello. Meesseman is likely more comfortable with the Liberty after making a couple more appearances with the team since then as well. While the Lynx should look great once more, I actually don’t expect them to come out and look like a world-beater. While this isn’t a back-to-back, it’s still tough to win twice against a team in the hoops world and I have a strong feeling that the Liberty can get their revenge here.
Top Pick: NY Liberty ML (+100)
