The Diamondbacks and Rockies split the first two games of this four-game series and now head into the third matchup on Saturday night.
Colorado is well out of playoff contention, holding the worst record in baseball, while Arizona is still fighting for the final Wild Card spot in the National League.
Arizona is a -168 favorite, while Colorado is +138 on DraftKings Sportsbook. The game total is set at over/under 11.5 runs.
Here’s my prediction and pick for Saturday’s Diamondbacks vs. Rockies matchup.
Diamondbacks vs. Rockies prediction
While the Diamondbacks were sellers at the deadline, they could still sneak into the postseason. The trio of Ketel Marte, Corbin Carroll and Geraldo Perdomo make for a strong top of the lineup. If these three perform, the Diamondbacks can rack up some runs tonight.
Arizona has been playing well lately, winning six of its last eight games. One of the losses did come last night, but the team should be able to bounce back.
Ryne Nelson is starting tonight, making his 16th start of the season and 26th appearance. He’s split time between the rotation and bullpen this year, but he’s been a full-time starter since June. He holds a 3.46 ERA in 106.2 innings.
Nelson’s latest start wasn’t ideal, as he allowed five earned runs against the Rangers. He still struck out six in 5.1 innings. The two outings prior he struck out eight each and allowed a total of three earned runs.
The Rockies are starting Chase Dollander. The rookie right-hander returned to the majors earlier this week and pitched five innings of one-run ball against the Cardinals.
Dollander isn’t in the best situation since he’s pitching at Coors Field, but that doesn’t excuse a 6.35 ERA through 73.2 innings. He’s allowed at least one earned run in all 16 starts this season, with a high of six three times.
This is the type of pitcher that Arizona needs to go against to take control of the series. An early attack could prove beneficial for the squad.
Diamondbacks vs. Rockies pick, best bet
The Diamondbacks are rightfully favored against the Rockies tonight, but the glaring line is the over/under 11.5 runs. It’s a steep mark despite playing at Coors Field.
Even with Dollander on the mound, the Diamondbacks will have to inflict a lot damage to hit the over. Nelson would also have to allow a handful of runs.
I’m sticking with the under for this match.