This is the second game of a three-game series in Toronto between the Blue Jays and visiting Texas Rangers.
Patrick Corbin is scheduled to pitch for Texas while Eric Lauer is slated to start for Toronto.
Blue Jays vs. Rangers prediction, preview
Patrick Corbin had a 5.62 ERA last season. Most of the numbers look similar to last season, but the ERA is 4 this season. The FIP was 4.41 last season and it’s 4.25 this season. The main difference is the BABIP, which was elevated at .337 last season, but is down at .296 this season. Corbin has also done a better job of limiting hard contact, as the average exit velocity is 88.5 mph, barrel rate is 7.6% and hard-hit rate is 36.7%. Despite averaging 91.5 mph on the fastball, the swinging strike rate is a respectable 10.9% while the chase rate is 30.8%. The strikeout rate is only 19.6%, though.
11 of the 16 home runs allowed have come off the bat of righties. Other than that, most of the numbers are similar against both righties and lefties. 10 of the 16 home runs have been served up on the road. Corbin has been much better at home, as the K-BB% is higher and the FIP is lower.
Corbin has allowed more than three earned runs only twice. He’s gone at least six innings five times in 22 starts. This will be the first time facing Toronto this season.
Against left-handed pitching, the Blue Jays have struck out at the 29th-highest rate while having the 14th-best ISO. Their wOBA is seventh-best in MLB.
Eric Lauer went to Korea and became a new pitcher. The main differences are that the control has gotten better while he’s not serving up as many homers. The BB/9 is 2.39 while the HR/9 is only 1.08. In 2023, the season before heading to Korea, those numbers were 4.63 and 3.09 respectively. Lauer only averages 91.6 mph on the fastball but is posting a 2.82 ERA. He’s gotten lucky with a .260 BABIP and 84.2% strand rate, so the FIP is up at 3.54. Still pretty, pretty good. The hard-hit rate is 41.3% but the barrel rate is only 7.1%.
Seven of the 10 home runs allowed by the soft-tossing lefty have come off the bat of righties. Eight of the 10 home runs have been served up on the road. Interestingly, the K-BB% is 7.4 percentage points higher against righties while the FIP is 0.6 lower. At home, Lauer has been elite with a 2.39 FIP and 26% K-BB%.
Lauer has not allowed more than three earned runs in any start. He’s gone at least six innings in four of 13 starts. He faced the Rangers back in Texas in May out of the bullpen, going 3.1 innings, walking two and striking out four without allowing an earned run.
The Rangers have struck out at the fifth-highest rate against left-handed pitching while ranking 26th in ISO. Their wOBA ranks seventh as well.
As for the bullpens, Texas has the eighth-lowest FIP, while Toronto has the 13th-lowest.
Rangers at Blue Jays pick, best bet
The battle of soft-tossing lefties who used to get pummeled but have found new life this season. Is it all a dream? Possibly, but the sample size isn’t miniscule for either pitcher. I don’t think either pitcher dominates, but doesn’t get shelled either.
