This is the opener of a three-game series in Chicago between the Cubs and visiting Pittsburgh Pirates.
Braxton Ashcraft is scheduled to pitch for Pittsburgh while Colin Rea is slated to start for Chicago.
Pirates vs. Cubs prediction, preview
Braxton Ashcraft is 25 years old and the 36.2 MLB innings pitched this season are his first in the majors. And he’s been superb. The ERA is 3.19 but the FIP is 2.81, as the BABIP is .325. Ashcraft is averaging 96.8 mph on the fastball while allowing only a 4.5% barrel rate and 38.4% hard hit rate. No wonder he’s allowed only one home run so far. For a young pitcher, the 3.19 BB/9 is decent.
Ashcraft has been better against righties, but he’s still been decent against lefties, although the walk rate is 13.2% against them. Ashcraft has been much better on the road, but the sample size is small.
Ashcraft has made only two starts this season, going three innings in both. Most of his outings have been one to two-inning stints. He faced the Cubs in Chicago back in June. Ashcraft went two innings, struck out two and did not allow an earned run on six hits.
Against right-handed pitching, the Cubs have struck out at the 26th-highest rate while having the third-best ISO. Their wOBA is fifth-best in MLB.
Colin Rea has a strikeout rate of 17.3% and allowed 19 home runs in 116.2 innings. The ERA is 4.09 while the FIP is at 4.67. The fastball averages 93.9 mph and he’s been getting hit hard with an average exit velocity of 90.1 mph, 10.3 barrel rate and 41.1% hard hit rate.
13 of the 19 home runs have come off the bat of lefties. 14 of the 19 home runs have been served up at home.
Rea has allowed over three earned runs seven times. He’s gone at least six innings only six times. Rea has faced Pittsburgh twice this season. The first outing was in Pittsburgh on May 1st. Rea went six innings, walked two, struck out two and allowed two earned runs on four hits. In mid-June, Rea faced the Pirates at home and went six innings, walked one, struck out four and allowed two earned runs on four hits.
The Pirates have struck out at the ninth-highest rate against right-handed pitching while ranking 30th in ISO. Their wOBA ranks 29th as well.
As for the bullpens, Pittsburgh has the 10th-lowest FIP, while Chicago has the 18th-lowest.
Pirates vs. Cubs pick, best bet
The Pirates can be offensively-challenged at times and Rea has pitched well against them this season. Ashcraft has been great in short stints and the bullpen hasn’t been great recently, but Chicago has been one of the hottest teams. I like the Cubs to squeak one out on Friday.
