This is the second game of a four-game series in Washington between the Nationals and visiting Atlanta Braves.
Zack Wheeler is scheduled to pitch for Philadelphia while MacKenzie Gore is slated to start for Washington.
Phillies at Nationals prediction, preview
Zack Wheeler is one of the best pitchers in MLB at the ripe age of 35. He’s averaging 96 mph on the fastball and the 11.76 K/9 is a career high. The 1.12 HR/9 is the first time over 1 since 2019, but the BB/9 is sub-2 at 1.93. The ERA is 2.68 while the FIP is 2.93. The average exit velocity is 87.3 mph, barrel rate is 7.1% and the hard hit rate is only 33.5%. The swinging strike rate is a robust 14.7% while the chase rate is 31.7%. Everything is chef’s kiss.
Lefties have hit 11 of the 18 home runs allowed. Wheeler has been better at home than on the road, but he’s still been very good on the road.
Wheeler has allowed more than three earned runs five times. He’s pitched a shutout six times. Wheeler has gone at least six innings in 18 of 23 starts. He has faced Washington twice this season. In his first start of the season in Washington, Wheeler went six innings, walked two, struck out eight and allowed one earned run on two hits. At the end of April in Philadelphia, Wheeler went 6.2 innings, walked one, struck out seven and allowed two earned runs on five hits.
Against right-handed pitching, the Nationals have struck out at the 27th-highest rate while having the 24th-best ISO. Their wOBA is 24th-best in MLB.
MacKenzie Gore was awesome to start the season, but he’s fallen upon some hard times. The season-long numbers look good, though. The strikeout rate is 28.3% while the walk rate is a career-low 8.4%. The ERA is 4.09 but the FIP is down at 3.55 as the BABIP is an elevated .336. The swinging strike rate is 13.6% while the chase rate is 31.4%. He does get hit hard, though, as the barrel rate is 9.4% and the hard hit rate is 41.4%.
12 of the 17 home runs have come off the bat of righties. The K-BB% is 7.9% lower against righties as well. Gore has been slightly better on the road as the FIP is slightly lower while the K-BB% is slightly higher.
Gore has allowed more than three earned runs six times, with three of those coming in the last five games. It’s been all or nothing for Gore recently. In his most recent outing, he struck out 10 while not allowing an earned run in six innings. In the two prior games, he got blasted for eight and six earned runs in three and 5.1 innings, respectively. The pendulum swung back the other way with one earned run in five innings before getting whipsawed for eight earned runs in 2.1 innings. Gore faced Philadelphia twice this season. In his first start of the season at home, he went six innings, struck out 13 and did not allow an earned run. At the end of April in Philadelphia, he went six innings, struck out six and allowed three earned runs on five hits.
The Phillies have struck out at the 17th-highest rate against left-handed pitching while ranking 11th in ISO. Their wOBA ranks 10th as well.
As for the bullpens, Philadelphia has the 22nd-lowest FIP, while Washington has the 30th-lowest.
Phillies at Nationals pick, best bet
In Wheeler I Trust. I have no faith in Gore or the Nationals’ bullpen.
