The Mets are set to open up a series against the Mariners on Friday, looking to break out of their brutal 2-13 funk from the past few weeks. Seattle on the other hand, is hoping to get back on track after following up their recent eight-game winning streak with back-to-back losses.
With Sean Manaea taking the mound for the Mets and Luis Castillo getting the nod for the Mariners, here is a preview of the Friday night showdown featuring odds and lines from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Mets vs. Mariners prediction, preview
While the Mets are a currently -124 Moneyline favorite, the Run Line has the Mariners at -1.5. New York has plenty of talent and was one of the best teams in baseball through mid-June, but Seattle is a far more comfortable position in the playoff race two months later. It hasn’t hurt that the Mariners’ pitching staff has given up the fewest runs in the American League in August, either.
Castillo hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs since June 24, although he did get tagged for three unearned and six total against the Milwaukee Brewers on July 23. Still, the righty’s 2.40 ERA and 1.000 WHIP over his last five starts is reason for concern in relation to New York’s offense.
It is also worth noting that Castillo is 2-1 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.121 WHIP in five career outings against the Mets. He also limits his opponents to 0.98 home runs per nine innings, which could spell trouble for Pete Alonso and Juan Soto. Instead, look out for Francisco Lindor and Jeff McNeil, who have hit .417 and .455 with a 1.084 and 1.591 OPS in their careers versus Castillo, respectively.
Manaea, meanwhile, has given up a home run in each of his last two starts and four of his last five. The 33-year-old southpaw missed the first four months of the season, then posted a 2.08 ERA through his first four starts back, only to give up nine earned runs across 9.2 innings in August so far.
That damage came at the hands of the red-hot Brewers and Cleveland Guardians, though, and the Mariners’ offense has not been performing at that level as of late. Seattle ranks No. 17 in runs and No. 19 in OPS across MLB this month, so Manaea could return to his July dominance on Friday.
Considering New York’s bullpen has been the team’s Achilles heel recently, Manaea might have to chip in more than his typical four or five innings to prevent another late-game meltdown. Keeping the ball out of Ryan Helsley’s hands, despite all they spent on him at the deadline, may actually be the recipe for success for the Mets.
The Mariners have a disappointing trade acquisition of their own in Eugenio Suárez, who is batting .125 with a .381 OPS over his last 13 games. That is quite the dropoff from his first 106 games with the Arizona Diamondbacks, when he had 36 home runs and an .897 OPS. Suárez is a .111 hitter with a .311 OPS in nine career at-bats against Manaea, making a return to form on Friday seem unlikely.
Mets vs. Mariners pick, best bet
Given Manaea’s struggles, and the combined 9.8 runs per game the Mets and Mariners have averaged this month, it may be tempting to take the over on 8.5 Total Runs. However, it’s tough to rely on such a small sample size for Manaea, as he placed 11th in NL Cy Young voting last season and was borderline dominant just last month. Castillo is in the midst of his own tear, so both pitchers could go for quality starts.
Helsley blew a save for New York on Thursday, so he probably won’t get another nod in a close game Friday. The far more reliable Edwin Díaz and Tyler Rogers pitched Thursday as well, only they hadn’t seen action in four days and should be available for back-to-back appearances.
Seattle owns a 3.64 bullpen ERA in 2025, which ranks No. 8 in MLB. All-Star closer Andrés Muñoz and breakout setup man Eduard Bazardo haven’t gone since Tuesday, so they should be ready to get the Mariners to the finish line Friday.
Best bet: Mets vs. Mariners u8.5 (+100)
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