Players’ Weekend in Major League Baseball doesn’t have unique jerseys with nicknames this year like it did in the past, but it does feature some pretty awesome custom bats and cleats that give players a chance to highlight who they are off the field and the causes that matter the most to them. The custom bats are often auctioned after the weekend, and the players will try to add a little more value to them by crushing a home run with their custom lumber this Friday night. It should be a good night for some home run props, with several homer-friendly venues and matchups in play. After looking at the matchups, environments, odds, and current form of the players on the board this Friday night, my favorite home run props are from Vinnie Pasquantino, Corbin Carroll, and Taylor Ward.
Just a quick reminder before we step to the plate and swing for the fences with these home run props — all home run props are long-shot bets by nature. Even the best home run hitters are more likely not to hit a home run in any single game, making home run props never “safe” picks. While there are some key indicators to consider, these picks remain volatile plays.
Home run props can be a fun part of your betting strategy, but they shouldn’t be heavily relied on since they’re very uncertain. What makes home run props exciting is that long odds yield big returns when they do smash. I also typically play home run props in round robins at a small unit size, which boosts the ceiling of your betting card even higher if multiple home run props hit on any given day.
Breaking down the numbers and matchups, here is why I like these three home run props for Wednesday.
Best HR Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Vinnie Pasquantino to record 1+ home runs (+500)
The Pasquatch and the Royals are hosting the White Sox this weekend, and the weather on Friday night looks very homer-friendly in Kansas City. The forecast is for hot, humid conditions with the wind blowing out, and his recent power binge is enough for me to pick Pasquantino’s home run props for awesome value at +500 even though he’s not in an ideal matchup.
Pasquantino is up to 22 homers on the season after going yard three times in his last four games. Seven of those homers have come in his last 19 games, and during that stretch, he has a 40.6% hard-hit rate and 11.6% barrel rate.
As a lefty, Vinnie P. usually thrives against righties and is hitting .273 with 17 of his 22 homers and a .347 wOBA in the split. He’ll take on a righty in Aaron Civale on Friday night, and Civale has given up five homers to lefties and five homers to righties this season, with balanced splits on both sides of the plate.
Pasquantino’s Players’ Weekend bat is a fun one, too, so if you buy into that kind of narrative, you can check that box as well.
I like the Pasquatch lumber, for sure, but I’m backing him more based on his recent form and the favorable weather conditions this Friday. It also helps that at +500 he brings excellent value if he does manage to keep his power surge rolling.
Corbin Carroll to record 1+ home runs (+250)
The Diamondbacks are in Denver for Players’ Weekend, taking on the Rockies at Coors Field. They piled up eight runs in the series opener and Carrolle went 1-for-4 with a double, a walk, and an RBI. He should be in a good spot to potentially pick up a home run on Friday night in a favorable matchup against Tanner Gordon.
Carroll already set a career-high with 26 homers this season, even though he missed some time with a wrist injury. He has played over 150 games in each of the last two seasons, but only needed 102 games to set a new career-best with 26 homers.
Carroll has five homers in his 24 games since the All-Star break, with a 50% hard-hit rate and a 16.3% barrel rate that ranks just above his 15.4% barrel rate on the season. He has more homers on the road than at home and 21 of his 26 long balls have come against righties, who he has a .382 wOBA and 146 wRC+ against on the season.
The Rockies’ starting pitcher Tanner Gordon should be a great matchup for Carroll, since he has given up 35 runs in 33 1/3 innings this season, with five homers and a 43.0% hard-hit rate against him. Lefties have hit four of those five homers and have hit .300 with a .362 wOBA. Righties have also hit him hard, but they only have one homer in 75 plate appearances.
Carroll’s odds are much shorter than the other two home run props in my picks, but in such a juicy matchup at Coors Field, I think he’s still a great option to include on the card for this Friday.
Taylor Ward to record 1+ home runs (+400)
Ward hit his 29th homer of the season on Wednesday off Shohei Ohtani.
He and the Angels are at homer-friendly Sutter Health Park on Friday night against the Athletics, and with the warm temps and a favorable matchup, Ward should be set to stay hot. His home runs tend to come in bunches, and he’s in the middle of a power surge coming into this matchup against rookie Jack Perkins.
Ward has six homers in his last 17 games, with a 22.5% barrel rate and an average exit velocity of 91.4 miles per hour over that span. Two of his 29 homers this year have been in his seven games against the A’s and 23 have come against righties.
He’ll face righty Jack Perkins, who has allowed 13 runs in 28 2/3 innings in the majors this year, including two homers allowed in his last three games.
With his current form and the favorable environment, Ward seems like a strong value with his home run props at +400.
