Imagine you’re a Brewers fan right now. Your team has won 12 in a row and you’re suddenly eight games up on the Cubs in the NL Central. How could things possible get better? Well…
That’s right. It appears that Jacob Misiorowski will return from the 15-day IL this evening and start tonight’s contest at Great American Ball Park for Milwaukee. The rich truly get richer.
Let’s preview this divisional matchup in Cincinnati with the help of some odds and lines on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Brewers at Reds prediction, preview
There’s a lot of reasons to talk about Jacob Misiorowski, but before we get to anything fun, let’s begin with the reality of his appearance tonight. The rookie phenom last pitched on July 28 against the Cubs, throwing 80 pitches over four frames. He has not gone on a rehab assignment, which likely means there will be some limitations on the 23-year-old this evening — on top of the limitations already in place for a pitcher that’s never thrown more than 97.1 innings in a single professional season. In fact, Pat Murphy noted on Wednesday that if Misiorowski did start on Friday, it would be an “abbreviated” outing. Keep that in mind when it comes to props.
Still, a version of Misiorowski capped at 50-60 pitches could still have a huge impact on this game. The RHP threw just 64 pitches against the Mariners back on July 22, yet he still managed to work 3.2 scoreless innings with seven strikeouts. Such is life when you possess a 2.25 xERA and a 36.4% strikeout rate in your brief MLB career. It’s also not like the Reds have been all that difficult a matchup for opponents in recent weeks. Dating back to the Midsummer Classic — a game Misiorowski famously participated in — Cincinnati sports a league-worst .117 ISO and it pairs that with a 90 wRC+ that ranks 27th in baseball. If Misiorowski can make quick work of this lineup, he might even be able to pitch into the fifth.
On the other side of the probables, Nick Martinez has actually been solid since giving up an embarrassing 10 earned runs against the Marlins back on July 8. In his six outings since, Martinez has pitched to a 3.23 ERA and 3.70 FIP, limiting opponents to a modest .268 wOBA. At the same time, Martinez possesses just an eighth percentile chase rate (23.8%) to go along with a 13th percentile whiff rate (19.8%). I always find it difficult to trust a starter that doesn’t miss bats, especially when going into a game with an offense as red-hot as Milwaukee’s. The Brew Crew has a 166 wRC+ in the month. They are operating at an entirely different level at the moment. Good luck, Nick.
Brewers at Reds pick, best bet
Best Bet: Brewers ML (-143)
Even with the Brewers on the road and Misiorowski limited, these odds feel like they should be longer.
Strong Lean: Nick Martinez Under 3.5 Strikeouts
Milwaukee owns the league’s second-lowest strikeout rate in August (17.1%).
