After last night’s win, the Los Angeles Dodgers (69-53) once again sit deadlocked with the San Diego Padres (69-53) for the NL West lead. With two more games to go in this series and the stakes high as ever, the MLB slate saves the best for last as these teams battle in tonight’s late window.
Here’s a Dodgers vs. Padres prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Saturday night.
Dodgers vs. Padres prediction, preview
The Dodgers held the NL West lead for practically the entire season and looked like clear favorites to emerge with one of the league’s top playoff seeds. However, their California dreamin’ quickly turned to a nightmare as Los Angeles emerged sluggishly from the All-Star break. Since then, they’re just 11-14 and briefly dropped to second in the division standings after suffering a series sweep to the cross-town L.A. Angels a few days ago.
Now, the Dodgers find themselves tied in the standings with tonight’s opponent. While Los Angeles’s .752 OPS and .245 average since the ASG rank ninth and 13th-best along with 36 homers, eighth-most, those numbers aren’t translating to great scoring marks. With 111 runs across this 25-game sample, the offense averages under 4.5 runs per contest and falls just 21st in scoring. Even more interesting is that the pitching staff ranks seventh in ERA over the same span, but it hasn’t translated to many wins.
The Padres, however, showed signs of a resurgence coming out of the break and are a team to fear with their Trade Deadline additions. They’re 17-9 since the ASG and were on a five-game winning streak until last night’s loss, though it’s worth noting they also hold a losing record on the road this year at 31-33. Still, this series will almost certainly prove crucial down the home stretch of the season, so it’s a big one for the Friars.
Their pitching staff ranks first in both ERA (3.21) and WHIP (1.09) since the season’s resumption while allowing the lowest opponent average (.214). These arms excelled through most of the year, but the batting order now provides run support that wasn’t seen through the early months of the campaign. The Padres rank eighth in OPS at .756, fourth in batting average at .272 with the sixth-most walks and second-fewest strikeouts. The excellent plate process translates to the scoring column even despite a lack of home runs — San Diego’s 128 runs since the break rank eighth and they average 4.92 per outing.
Dodgers vs. Padres pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Dodgers as -119 Moneyline favorites in Saturday’s game. The Padres come in at -102 on the Moneyline with the run total set at 7.5.
A couple of talented hurlers go head-to-head tonight. Lefty Blake Snell (2.37 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 22 SO) starts for Los Angeles this evening in his fifth appearance of the year. San Diego deploys right-hander Dylan Cease (4.52 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 169 SO), who sits fourth among all pitchers in strikeouts this season.
This odds indicate a very close contest today, and it won’t be shocking whatsoever if that happens based on the pitching matchup on deck. However, I have a good feeling about the Padres tonight and expect them to bounce back and win. The stakes are high and they have plenty of capable hitters in the lineup, but their bullpen is also far more reliable than the Dodgers’ pen with the best ERA and WHIP in baseball. Despite the loss last night, San Diego brings better form to the table and until Los Angeles starts stringing together consistent wins again, they’re difficult to trust.
For an alternate pick, consider taking Cease to record 7+ strikeouts tonight. He’s hit that mark in 14 of his 24 appearances this season and there’s precedent against Los Angeles, too. He faced the Dodgers twice this season, both times in June — Cease struck out 11 and nine batters in those two outings. With an 83rd-percentile chase percentage as well as 92nd and 95th-percentile strikeout and whiff percentages, he’s got the stuff to cash this prop against a team with the sixth-most strikeouts since the ASG
Best bet: SD Padres ML (-102)
Click the odds on this bet to tail!
