In the late portion of today’s five-game WNBA slate, the Phoenix Mercury will host the Las Vegas Aces. This will mark the third matchup between these two teams this season, with each team producing a victory to this point.
These teams sit in fourth and fifth place in the WNBA standings at this stage of the season. With roughly 75% of the season complete, every matchup carries a bit more weight with the playoffs looming on the horizon. Phoenix holds a one-game lead for fourth place in the standings, but the Aces are carrying a five-game winning streak into tonight.
The Mercury enter tonight as 4.5-point favorites and -185 on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Aces hold +154 odds of getting the outright victory with the game total set at 168.5.
Aces at Mercury preview
The Las Vegas Aces enter with a 19-14 record. They have won five consecutive games and seven of their past eight. It took some time to settle in following the offseason blockbuster trade to send away Kelsey Plum, but Las Vegas looks to have turned a corner and is settling in. On the season overall, they rank seventh in points per game, ninth in field goal percentage, and ninth in three-point percentage. Defensively, they rank ninth in opponents’ scoring at 82.7 points per game, ninth in opponents’ field goal percentage, and eighth in opponent three-point percentage.
However, these metrics have taken huge strides forward in their recent hot streak. Las Vegas has limited opponents to 79.8 points per game across its winning streak. They have held four of their past seven opponents to under 80 points. Three-time MVP A’ja Wilson headlines the production and is averaging 22.0 points, 9.7 rebounds, and 2.1 blocks per game on the season. Jackie Young adds 17.0 points, 4.6 assists, and 4.2 rebounds, while Chelsea Gray and Jewell Lloyd also pitch in a combined 22.7 points per game. NaLyssa Smith is also a key X-factor and adds 7.6 points and 6.1 rebounds per game.
The Phoenix Mercury hold a 19-12 record on the season, but have lost six of their last 10 games played. It has been a tough stretch of the schedule, but they have not looked convincing on the floor. On the season overall, Phoenix ranks sixth in scoring, eighth in team field goal percentage, and seventh in three-point percentage. They tally the fourth-fewest turnovers and rank second in the league in pace. The Mercury have been one of the best defensive teams in the league all season. They are holding opponents to 79.5 points per game, the fourth-best rate, and rank fourth in opponents’ field goal percentage, sixth in opponents’ three-point percentage, and are posting the second-best defensive rating.
Satou Sabally leads the Mercury in scoring with 17.0 points, along with 6.6 rebounds and 2.3 assists per game. Alyssa Thomas is averaging 16.1 points, 9.0 assists, and 8.7 rebounds. Khaleah Copper has settled in after starting the season injured, averaging 15.4 points and 2.9 rebounds while shooting 41.3% from beyond the three-point arc. Six-time All-Star DeWanna Bonner has made her impact felt after starting the season with the Indiana Fever. Across her first 12 games with the Mercury, she is averaging 11.9 points and 4.7 rebounds in 24.2 minutes per night.
Aces at Mercury prediction, pick
The recent Mercury slide is not as concerning as the raw results may seem. All six of the losses over the past 10 games have come to teams in the top six in the standings, which include the Atlanta Dream, Minnesota Lynx, New York Liberty, and Indiana Fever. However, the Aces have played themselves into the same tier of teams and are still looking to add to this.
Their recent stretch of play is encouraging, and it is the first time all season that it has felt like everything is clicking. A’ja Wilson is averaging 24.8 points and 13.8 rebounds per game across the five-game winning streak and will cause problems for the Mercury tonight. However, Alyssa Thomas has been equally problematic and is averaging 15.0 points, 10.5 assists, and 6.5 rebounds in the pair of matchups against Las Vegas. She became the first player in WNBA history to record three consecutive triple-doubles while winning all three games last week. She failed to extend this in the previous loss but still dropped 21 points, eight rebounds, and five assists.
The Aces are coming off a tough win over the Liberty on Wednesday, and tonight will mark their fourth game in a week. In contrast, the Mercury are entering off four days of rest and had a chance to wipe the slate clean. Both the previous games were close matchups, with the Aves’ victory coming by six points, while the Mercury defeated Las Vegas by three points. Expect this to be another close game tonight and for neither team to be fully capable of putting the other away.
With this in mind, I am backing the Aces to cover the 4.5-point spread. Las Vegas should be considered live underdogs in this matchup, and the +154 moneyline odds on DraftKings are intriguing. But I am taking the 4.5-point insurance policy and backing this game to go right down to the wire, one way or another.
