The 2024 San Francisco 49ers finished the season with 533 pass attempts, the 11th-fewest in the league. Since Kyle Shanahan became coach of the 49ers, San Francisco has ranked 20th or lower in pass attempts six-of-eight seasons. Everything filters off the run game, and that’s going to remain a constant.
Last season, injuries decimated the team on both sides of the ball. Offensive skills players, Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel all missed significant time while the offensive line was banged up as well. Dre Greenlaw and Talanoa Hufanga suffered injuries on defense.
San Francisco finished with a 6-11 record, but there is optimism heading into 2025. Changes have been made on both sides of the ball, McCaffrey is healthy, but the biggest reason could be due to finishing 6-11 last season.
49ers target share overview
According to Sharp Football Analysis, the 49ers have the easiest schedule by a wide margin. San Francisco finished last in the NFC West, so it will face the last place teams in the NFC and AFC South divisions.
DraftKings Sportsbook has the 49ers with a win total of 10.5. Only five teams have a double-digit win total, so the 49ers are expected to return to some semblance of glory.
Prior to last season, Shanahan guided the 49ers offense to top-six rankings in both points and yards two straight seasons. With a healthy McCaffrey, George Kittle and Brock Purdy, there’s a good chance the offense gets back to being one of the best units again.
The defense finished 29th in points last season. There should be improvement this season, especially since Robert Saleh has returned to be the defensive coordinator. That said, the depth charts have massively changed due to salary cap issues. In addition, the unit got younger with the first five picks in the NFL draft used on defensive players.
It may take time to gel, but the learning curve and growing pains could be mitigated by the favorable schedule. There’s a chance the 49ers get close to a 50/50 run/pass ratio. Two seasons ago, San Francisco was 30th in pass rate at 52.08%. Purdy attempted 444 passes in 16 games. Last season, Purdy attempted 455 passes in one fewer game.
Now, let’s take a look at how the targets should be distributed in San Francisco this season.
Wide receivers
Jauan Jennings led this group with 113 targets and a 26.3% target share. He was at 9% and 12% the prior two seasons. The reason for the massive spike was due to Brandon Aiyuk only playing seven games. Aiyuk finished with 47 targets and a 24.2% targets share.
Deebo Samuel played 15 games and finished with 81 targets and a 19.6% target share.
Ricky Pearsall played 11 games and received 46 targets and a 14.6% target share.
Samuel is now in Washington while Aiyuk is still recovering from a knee injury. Aiyuk is currently on the PUP list, and there’s been some optimism that he could be ready for Week 1, but the 49ers will likely err on the side of caution.
Jennings should see at least a 25% target share while Aiyuk is out. When Aiyuk returns, though, Jennings will likely come down to the 20% range, but he should still remain heavily involved. As mentioned above, though, overall volume could be an issue.
Pearsall began training camp on the PUP list, but he should be back in action very soon. He is the one most likely to soak up most of Samuel’s vacated target share, at least until Aiyuk is good to go. When both Aiyuk and Jennings are healthy, Pearsall may not be on the field as much, as the 49ers utilize 11 personnel at one of the fewest rates in the league and the defense with the soft schedule could foster more run-heavy game scripts and environments.
Tight ends
George Kittle dominated the tight ends with 94 targets, which was the second-most on the team at any position. The target share was 22%. He will continue being one of the highest target earners on the team.
Running backs
Fullback Kyle Juszcyk led the position with 31 targets last season. If that’s the only stat you saw about the 49ers season, then you’d have known something terrible happened.
McCaffrey was second with 19 targets and an 18.6% target share in only four games. In the two prior seasons with San Francisco, McCaffrey garnered 83 and 65 targets in 16 and 11 games, respectively. The target shares were 19.3% and 21.8%. Somewhere in the 20% range should be expected this season.
