The Seattle Mariners are on a tear since the trade deadline, while the Baltimore Orioles are trying to avoid a teardown.
As the Mariners stomp toward the playoffs in a heated AL playoff picture, Baltimore’s season is well over. The young core hasn’t delivered the results they needed, while their pitching fell apart. This series has only exacerbated the gap between these two, and it may look worse on Thursday.
The Mariners are a -126 moneyline favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook. The over/under is set at 9.5 runs. Let’s dig into a preview, prediction, and best bet for this Orioles vs. Mariners game.
Mariners vs. Orioles prediction, preview
The pitching matchup is uninspiring to say the least. That’s a surprise when the Mariners are in town.
Logan Evans’ path to the Mariners rotation has been strange. A 24-year-old former 12th-round pick making the big leagues for a competitive team is a big endorsement. But as an injury replacement for their rotation, he’s left a lot to be desired. Evans’ expected ERA of 5.39 is a ninth percentile mark in the Major Leagues, according to Baseball Savant. In fact, he doesn’t have a single above-average metric on his Savant page.
I like his arsenal. He has six pitches that he uses at least 10% of the time, and he should be able to keep hitters off balance once he’s able to dial in his breaking balls. But, for now, he’s a liability. And teams in heated playoff races can’t afford to let liabilities take the mound every five days.
Speaking of liabilities, Tomoyuki Sugano was so bad that the Orioles couldn’t even flip him as a rental pitcher during the deadline. The 35-year-old signed a one-year, $13 million deal in the offseason. It’s not going to plan for Sugano or the O’s. He somehow has a worse xERA than Evans at 5.68, and an expected batting average of .299. Making every hitter look like Freddie Freeman isn’t a good quality to have.
It’s a high total for a reason. But the bats will be hot in this game, and Baltimore’s bullpen woes only give me more confidence in a high-scoring affair.
