This is the opener of a four-game series in Washington between the Nationals and visiting Philadelphia Phillies.
Jesus Luzardo is scheduled to pitch for Philadelphia while Brad Lord is slated to start for Washington.
Phillies vs. Nationals prediction, preview
Jesus Luzardo has been magnifique this season. There have been a few blowups…cough…12 earned runs in 3.1 innings….cough…so the ERA is at 4.2, but the BABIP is an elevated .344 while the FIP is down at 3.04. The strikeout rate is a robust 26.8% while the K-BB% is a respectable 18.8%. The walk rate is 8% and Luzardo has only allowed 12 home runs in 133 innings. He’s averaging 96.3 mph on the fastball, the swinging strike rate is 12.9% and the chase rate is 30.3%. The groundball rate is 43.1% and the barrel rate is only 6.5%.
Luzardo has been the devil to left-handed batters. The K-BB% is 38% while the FIP is 0.44. L. O. L. Luzardo has essentially been site neutral.
Luzardo has allowed more than three earned runs six times. There was that two-game stretch allowing 12 and eight earned runs back in June when there was chatter about tipping pitches. Since then, he hasn’t allowed an earned run in three of his 11 starts with over three earned runs allowed in four of those starts. In his most recent outing, Luzardo went six innings, walked one and struck out four with one earned run allowed. He faced Washington in his first start of the season, going five innings, walking two, striking out 11 and allowing two earned runs in Washington.
Against left-handed pitching, the Nationals have struck out at the 13th-highest rate while having the 19th-best ISO. Their wOBA is 20th-best in MLB.
Brad Lord hasn’t been a savior, but this Lord has made his congregation clap for joy. Through 85 innings, the ERA is 3.28 while the FIP is 3.62. The fastball averages 95.2 mph and he’s only allowed five home runs while walking only 14. The strikeout rate is only 20.1%, though, but he’s done an excellent job of limiting hard contact. The average exit velocity is only 87.9 mph, the barrel rate is 4.8% and the hard hit rate is 39.1%.
Lord has been more effective against lefties, but they have hit five of the seven home runs allowed. Five of the home runs have also been served up at home.
Lord has allowed more than three earned runs only once, although he’s only started 10 games with the rest as a bullpen arm. He’s gone at least six innings only twice, but one was in his most recent outing. He has faced Philadelphia twice this season. In the opening game, he came out of the pen and did not record an out while walking two and allowing an earned run on three hits. A month later, he got the start in Philadelphia, went five innings and walked one, struck out four and allowed two earned runs on six hits.
The Phillies have struck out at the 24th-highest rate against right-handed pitching while ranking 12th in ISO. Their wOBA ranks eighth as well.
As for the bullpens, Philadelphia has the 21st-lowest FIP, while Washington has the 29th-lowest.
Phillies vs. Nationals pick, best bet
Luzardo is always in play to get lit up, but I think he dominates in this one. I like the Phillies’ offense to get busy against the Nationals bullpen, but not enough to go over.
