Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.
It’s a lighter slate than usual on Thursday, with just five games getting going past 6:30 p.m. ET. No matter. As long as someone is playing baseball, we’ll break down who has the edge to leave the yard. Here are my top three picks for tonight’s action on the diamond.
Top Home Run Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Juan Soto 1+ Home Run (+290)
If you’re someone who subscribes to BvP data, you might find it interesting to know that Juan Soto, Pete Alonso (+265) and Francisco Lindor (+320) all have a home run and a career OPS above 1.300 off Bryce Elder. That said, most people have been hitting the Braves’ RHP pretty well in 2025. Elder comes into Thursday in possession of a 6.12 ERA and a 5.51 xERA across exactly 100.0 innings. His biggest flaw? His ability to keep the ball in the park. Elder has conceded 18 long balls this season, which translates out to 1.62 per nine. Not ideal — unless you’re hoping to find a viable home run prop on the Mets’ roster, obviously. I’ll lean towards Soto, as the former All-Star has slightly longer odds than Alonso. Soto also has better numbers against right-handed pitching, as the veteran’s .713 expected slugging percentage within the split not only leads New York, but is the highest qualified mark in all of MLB.
Riley Greene 1+ Home Run (+275)
Greene hasn’t been swinging the bat all that well since the All-Star break, yet his season-long numbers against RHPs remain sterling. In 338 plate appearances within the split, Greene is slashing .296/.334/.594 with a .299 ISO and a 154 wRC+. Overall, Green also owns a 96th percentile barrel rate in 2025 (17.3%), which is a huge reason why the former fifth-overall pick has already set a new career-high in home runs (27). Now let’s talk about Bailey Ober. Many had high hopes for the lanky right-hander after great showings in both 2023 and 2024, but this year has been a nightmare for the 30-year-old. Ober sports a 5.16 ERA and he’s giving up an eye-popping 2.01 opponent home runs per nine — the most of any pitcher with at least 100 innings thrown. Specific to LHBs, Ober is surrendering 2.38 long balls per nine. Yikes.
Geraldo Perdomo 1+ Home Run (+500)
A more conservative bettor would like just take Corbin Carroll (+190) or Ketel Marte (+270) to hit a home run tonight at Coors Field, but I’m looking for some better odds. It’s Colorado. Let’s get wild. Perdomo has shown a decent amount of pop for a player who came into 2025 having hit only 14 career home runs, with 13 long balls over 532 plate appearances. 11 of those 13 have come as a left-handed bat off right-handed pitching, with Perdomo’s .188 ISO as an LHB is sitting exactly 100 points higher than his modest .088 ISO as an RHB. It’s good news then that Bradley Blalock will be toeing the rubber for the Rockies this evening. First and foremost, Blalock is an RHP. However, he’s also an RHP that has struggled in opposite-hand matchups in the altitude. To wit, Blalock has faced 50 left-handed opponents at Coors this season and they’ve combined to slash .465/.520/.791. It’s a small sample, but a damning one.
