The 2024 Los Angeles Rams finished the season with 594 pass attempts, the 15th-most in the league. Since Sean McVay became the head coach of the Rams in 2017, the pass rate has been above 60% just once, ranking eighth-highest that season, and has been 14th or lower in every other season, with four ranked in the 20s. The Rams are one of the most balanced teams despite utilizing 11 personnel at the second-highest rate of 81.25%.
The coaching staff remains intact while the defense wasn’t altered much. The biggest change is the swap of Cooper Kupp for Davante Adams at wide receiver.
Rams target share overview
This is going to be the shortest overview in the target share series. For many of the other teams, I espoused how changes in coaches and/or players could affect game script and volume. The Rams are going to do what they’ve been doing for years.
Granted, the 21.6 points per game last season were the second-lowest in the McVay Rams era. In 2022, the Rams averaged 18.1 points per game as Stafford only played nine games while Baker Mayfield (before he was good again), John Wolford and Bryce Perkins all made starts.
Well, Puka Nacua only played 11 games, Tyler Higbee only played three games and Cooper Kupp played 12 games but was a shell of his former self. As a result, Kupp was let go and was replaced by Davante Adams. That move was met with optimism in the betting markets.
DraftKings Sportsbook has the Rams at +195 to win the NFC West, just behind the San Francisco 49ers at +150. The Over/Under for wins is set at 9.5, so the markets are expecting the Rams to get back to being the Rams.
An injury to Matthew Stafford would likely be the only thing to derail the train a bit, and he’s been dealing with a back issue this offseason. It doesn’t sound serious, but in the event that he misses time, Jimmy Garoppolo was signed as a backup. Whatever you think of Garoppolo, he does have experience and is a more-than-capable game manager.
PFF has the Rams offensive line ranked 15th heading into the upcoming season. The unit was good at limiting pressure and posted a low sack rate last season, although some of that success can be attributed to Stafford. In the run game, the unit was one of the best in the league. McVay should continue to confound defenses in 2025.
Now, let’s take a look at how the targets should be distributed in Los Angeles this season.
Wide receivers
Puka Nacua led the Rams with 106 targets last season with a 29.9% target share. He only played 11 games. Cooper Kupp received 100 targets in 12 games with a 26.2% target share. Demarcus Robinson had 64 targets with an 11.8% target share and Tutu Atwell finished with 62 targets and an 11.5% target share.
Kupp is now in Seattle while Robinson is in San Francisco.
The big addition to the group is Davante Adams. In his 11-year career, Adams has garnered over 100 targets nine times, with four of those over 150. He’s had a target share over 30% five times. Last season, he finished with a 29.5% target share, despite joing a Jets team that had Garrett Wilson on the roster. Wilson had a 30.1% target share in 2023. With Adams, that number came down to 26%.
It’s possible both Nacua and Adams each get close to a 30% target share, but I wouldn’t expect that. It’s also within the range of outcomes that one of Nacua or Adams gets a 30% target share while the other settles in the mid-to-high 20% range. More than likely, I think both end up in the high-20s.
Atwell should see a significant increase from the 428 snaps he saw last season, but I don’t think the target share rises too much from the 11% he garnered last season.
Tight ends
Tyler Higbee dominated the targets at the position for five seasons, receiving at least 85 three times with a high of 108. The target share was mostly in the 15% range, but did spike to 20% one season. He only played three games last season and finished with 12 targets. He should be good to go and return to being the alpha at the position, but there has been some chatter that he could be on the trading block.
Colby Parkinson filled in for Higbee last season and finished with 49 targets and a 9.1% target share. He received 34 targets in each of the prior two seasons with a target share of 6%.
The Rams spent a second round pick on Terrance Ferguson. Tight ends often take time to get acclimated to the NFL, so I wouldn’t expect much. If Higbee does get traded or if Ferguson starts seeing significant snaps, then I would be very interested because that would indicate faith in the rookie by the coaching staff.
Running backs
Kyren Williams had 40 targets and an 8% target share last season. He was the only running back to receive at least 10 targets. Matthew Stafford had the fourth-lowest checkdown rate of 7.7% last season.
