Although the Tigers are still leading the AL Central, they’ve cooled off a bit in the second half. Their lead over the second-place Guardians is just 6.5 games with about a month and a half left of the regular season.
Still, Detroit is just a half game behind the Blue Jays for the best record in the American League. It plays Minnesota on the road in a three-game set beginning on Thursday, Aug. 14.
The Tigers are -208 favorites, while the Twins are +169 on DraftKings Sportsbook. The game total is set at over/under 7.5 runs.
Here’s my prediction and pick for Thursday’s Tigers vs. Twins matchup.
Tigers vs. Twins prediction
Tarik Skubal will start for Detroit tonight, immediately giving the team a massive advantage. The reigning AL Cy Young is competing for a second straight Cy Young award this year, leading the American League in ERA again.
His last two starts, however, have been disappointing. He allowed four earned runs over 4.2 innings against the Angels and three earned over seven against the Phillies. Before these games, he held a 2.09 ERA, which has since increased to 2.35.
Even the best pitchers have rough outings, but it’s rare for a pitcher of Skubal’s caliber to have two in a row. He’s allowed three or more earned runs in back-to-back starts three times this season. In the starts afterward, he did not allow a run.
Of course, it’s a small sample size since this is just the third time Skubal has allowed three or more earned runs in consecutive starts. Still, he’s too talented to falter again, especially against the Twins.
Minnesota is ranked 23rd in runs per game, so it’s already a struggling offense against the average opponent. Put Skubal on the mound, and the Twins may get shut out completely.
The Twins are starting Bailey Ober, who has been underwhelming after a great May. He held a 2.76 ERA through 29.1 innings in May. June was quite the opposite (9.00 ERA, 30 innings) and he hasn’t found his footing since.
His most recent one-run performance against the Royals was promising, but it’s not enough to earn the trust of bettors after such a miserable June. The Tigers should feast on their prey tonight.
Tigers vs. Twins pick, best bet
Trust Skubal. The reigning AL Cy Young winner will have an elite performance tonight against the Twins.
Not only will he limit runs, but Skubal will go deep into this game. The best bet for tonight’s Tigers vs. Twins matchup is a Skubal prop: over 18.5 outs.