The Royals were somewhat surprising buyers at the MLB Trade Deadline, and if the team is going to reward management’s confidence with a Wild Card berth, it needs to keep taking advantage of opponents like the Nationals. Kansas City has taken the first two games of this series and it’ll be looking for the sweep on Wednesday afternoon.
Can the Royals move above the .500 mark? Let’s preview this matinee matchup with the help of some odds and lines on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Nationals vs. Royals prediction, preview
One of the biggest shocks of last month’s deadline wasn’t even a trade. It was the Royals extending the contract of Seth Lugo, who seemed set to test the free agency waters at season’s end. On the surface, Lugo’s 3.46 ERA looks very similar to his mark of 3.00 in 2024 — a campaign where the veteran RHP truly broke out into the national consciousness as a front-line starter. However, the data from under the hood is much different. After surrendering a season-high seven earned runs to the Twins his last time out, Lugo is now in possession of a 14th percentile xERA (5.05) to go along with a career-worst 4.66 FIP. Lugo’s often outperformed his ERA estimators as a starter, yet it certainly feels as if the soon-to-be 36-year-old is far more reliant on his unsustainably low BABIP (.258) and unsustainably high strand rate (83.1%) in 2025. That’s a package that simply does inspire a lot of confidence.
Thankfully, if you’re a Kansas City fan or prospective bettor, Jake Irvin inspires even less confidence. Despite somehow holding a winning record of 8-7, Irvin has amassed an ugly 4.90 ERA and 5.32 xERA across 24 starts and 136.0 innings this season. If you want to get more granular, Irvin possesses a 6.38 ERA over his last 13 outings, a span of time where the right-hander is surrendering a ghastly 2.13 opponent home runs per nine. That’s usually the result when you combine a sixth percentile opponent barrel rate (11.9%) with an eighth percentile strikeout rate (15.6%). Woof.
The Royals are also suddenly equipped to take advantage of Irvin’s flaws. While the club hit for virtually zero power in the season’s first-half, Kansas City has been finding the outfield bleachers with regularity since the All-Star break. In the team’s 23 games since the Midsummer Classic, the Royals have racked up 34 long balls and a .193 ISO that is the fifth-highest mark in MLB. Kauffman Stadium isn’t a great park for homers, but if any pitcher can overcome the odds, it’s Irvin.
Nationals vs. Royals pick, best bet
Best Bet: Over 9 (-101)
Both of these starters have an xERA above 5.00 for the season and the Royals, in particular, are swinging the bats well since the All-Star break.
