The Philadelphia Phillies and Cincinnati Reds will face off as part of tonight’s 15-game MLB slate. This will be the third game of the series between the National League opponents after they split the opening two games. Philadelphia took the series opener in a comeback 4-1 victory before the Reds evened it up, even with the rain delay, to win 6-1 yesterday.
These two teams will square off for the rubber match tonight. Cincinnati is two games out from a Wild Card seed, while the Phillies have built up a five-game lead in the NL East, with the playoff picture beginning to be painted. Cristopher Sanchez and Hunter Greene will make up the pitching matchup, with both starters flashing to be among the better pitchers in the entire league this season.
Looking at today’s odds, the Phillies enter as -126 favorites on the moneyline and hold +129 odds on the -1.5 run line on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Reds hold +104 odds of getting the outright victory with the run total set at 8.5.
Here’s my prediction and pick for Wednesday’s Reds vs. Phillies matchup.
Reds vs. Phillies prediction
Cristopher Sanchez has played himself into the Cy Young conversation this season. He holds the third-best odds of being crowned the NL Cy Young at +600 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. His Phillies teammate Zack Wheeler and Paul Skenes mark the only names ahead of him. Sanchez is posting a 2.36 ERA with 151 strikeouts and only 121 hits allowed across his 144.2 innings pitched. He is tied with Shohei Ohtani for the best WAR in the National League at 6.0. Sanchez has not allowed more than four runs in a start all season and has held opponents to one or fewer earned runs in 12 of the 23 games.
The Phillies’ offense took some time to wake up this season, but it has rounded into form as the season progressed. They rank sixth in the MLB in batting average, seventh in on-base percentage, ninth in slugging, eighth in OPS, ninth in total bases and ninth in total runs. Kyle Schwarber is third in the league in home runs with 42 on the season, along with his team-leading 97 RBIs. Trea Turner leads the Phillies with his .282 batting average, while Bryce Harper has looked more like himself of late and is coming off a home run last night.
Hunter Greene was off to an excellent start to the season, but he has been sidelined since June 3 with a groin issue. He suffered a setback during the initial rehab process, which extended his time away from the team. Across the 11 starts he has made, Greene is posting a 2.72 ERA with 73 strikeouts and just 44 hits allowed across his 59.2 innings pitched. The 26-year-old has only allowed more than three earned runs in a start once this year and has held opponents to one or fewer in five of his 11 starts.
Cincinnati ranks 16th in the MLB in batting average, 16th in on-base percentage, 20th in slugging and 19th in OPS. It has tallied the 16th-most hits, ranks 21st in total home runs, 18th in total bases and has struck out the ninth-most times. Elly De La Cruz leads the team with 128 hits, 19 home runs, 74 RBIs and 31 stolen bases on the season. TJ Friedl is the lone other member of the Reds with over 100 hits. Spencer Steer, Matt McLain and Austin Hays join with each player also having logged 10+ home runs on the season.
Reds vs. Phillies pick, best bet
The loss last night snapped a four-game Phillies winning streak, and they have won seven of their last nine. While fatigue has been evident with both Zack Wheeler and Ranger Suarez seeing some dip in velocity, Cristopher Sanchez is showing no signs of slowing down. He has gone 14.0 innings across his past two starts, giving up just one earned run and striking out 12.
It is more of an uncertain outlook for Hunter Greene, with this being his first Major League start in over two months. He allowed five runs in his previous rehab start down in Triple-A in 5.1 innings pitched and is pitching on five days’ rest since this point. While he did settle in and retire the final nine hitters he faced, it wasn’t as clear an indication that he is ready as one would hope. Greene will be thrown to the fire against an intimidating Phillies lineup. He has not faced them this year, but Philadelphia tallied four earned runs and seven hits against Greene last season.
While the Phillies’ offensive output has been encouraging of late, this has not quite been the case in this series. It took until the fifth inning in each of the first two games of the series for the Phillies to record their first hit, and they have only produced five total runs. My lean is toward the under from the run total perspective due to the strong pitching matchup and how lights out the Phillies’ bullpen has been since the addition of Jhoan Duran. But the uncertainty with Greene has me staying away.
Sanchez is the most sure thing about this matchup, and I am backing the Phillies standout to steer the team to another victory tonight. Philadelphia is 17-6 in games he has started this season, and there is little reason to believe this middling Reds offense will be able to interrupt his excellent stretch of starts. Count on Sanchez doing enough to give the Phillies a chance and for the offense to put enough runs on the board to pick up another victory. Look for the Phillies to get the better of the rubber match and pick up their eighth win in the past 10 games.
