The FedEx Cup Playoffs continue this week with the BMW Championship, which is the second of three events for the playoffs. The BMW Championship will be played at Caves Valley Golf Club (par 70, 7,601 yards, bentgrass greens) in Owings Mills, Maryland, which also hosted the 2021 BMW Championship won by Patrick Cantlay (-27). The top-50 players in the FedEx Cup standings are competing this week and there will be no cut. Following the BMW Championship, the top-30 in the FedEx Cup standings will advance to the TOUR Championship next week.
Below, I have featured some head-to-head tournament matchup bets to consider for the BMW Championship on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Top BMW Championship Matchup Picks
Kurt Kitayama over Maverick McNealy (-105)
While McNealy is in solid form, it doesn’t compare to Kitayama, who is playing some of the best golf of this entire stacked field. The latter has finished inside the top-15 in four of his past five starts, most notably with a win at the 3M Open last month. McNealy on the other hand missed the cut at the 3M Open and has only finished inside the top-20 once in his last five starts.
Both these players just competed at last week’s playoff opening FedEx St. Jude Championship and Kitayama shined at TPC Southwind with a T-9 finish, while McNealy finished T-28 of the 69-man field. When we compare this field’s last 24 rounds, Kitayama ranks sixth in total strokes gained, whereas McNealy ranks 27th.
This week will be Kitayama’s first attempt at Caves Valley, while McNealy did compete at this venue for the 2021 BMW Championship. However, the latter struggled mightily that week, finishing T-63 of the 70 players at the event, including an ugly final round 77. While this will be Kitayama’s debut at Caves Valley, this venue presenting bentgrass greens is great news for him, while it’s a concern for McNealy. When we analyze this field’s results last 50 rounds at courses that feature bentgrass putting surfaces, Kitayama ranks eighth in strokes gained per round, while McNealy ranks 31st.
As you can see, Kitayama is in a much better position to succeed than McNealy this week and Kitayama is a must-bet to win this tournament matchup.
Ludvig Aberg over Justin Thomas (-115)
Thomas does have an advantage over Aberg in that Thomas finished T-22 at Caves Valley in 2021, compared to Aberg, who has never competed at this Tom Fazio design before, but Aberg is playing much better golf than Thomas right now.
Aberg has been on a roll with two top-10 finishes in his last three starts, whereas Thomas hasn’t finished higher than T-22 in his last three starts. At last week’s FedEx St. Jude Championship, Aberg was in the mix for a win, finishing T-9, while Thomas finished T-28. When we analyze this field’s last 12 rounds, Aberg ranks 10th in total strokes gained, compared to Thomas, who ranks 22nd.
Similar to the matchup between Kitayama and McNealy above, Caves Valley being home to bentgrass greens is also a huge factor for this matchup between Aberg and Thomas. When we compare this field’s last 50 rounds at courses with bentgrass putting surfaces, Aberg ranks fifth in strokes gained per round, while Thomas ranks 37th.
Aberg’s +2200 odds to win the BMW Championship on DraftKings Sportsbook are better than Thomas at +2500, and Aberg is the clear choice for this matchup.
