The second leg of the PGA TOUR playoffs start this week with the BMW Championship. This is the second of three playoff events that ultimately will decide who wins the FedEx Cup as the leader in the points race at the end of the season, and it features a 50-man field with all of the top players on the PGA.
The event this season will be played at Caves Valley, a 7,600+ yard Par 72 that will be the complete opposite of what we saw last week in Memphis, from a setup perspective. Caves Valley is an expansive Tom Fazio design that has larger fairways and will be a driver-friendly course that should produce lots of low rounds if the weather is decent and the course receptive. This event was played here in 2021 and both Patrick Cantlay (winner) and Bryson DeChambeau got to -27 under par, with Cantlay winning in a playoff.
I wrote more about Caves Valley and the traits it will take to succeed at this venue in this week’s BMW Championship PGA DFS Cheat Sheet.
“The course is relatively new (created in 1991), but they have heightened the rough, added a couple of new bunkers, and added tee boxes to increase the length of the course for this week’s event. Like many of Fazio’s other designs, though, this venue looks like a more sprawling course where good drivers of the ball can grab an advantage. Length may not be the only factor in play here, as the rough will likely play up, making fairways more optimal than normal here. Still, driving the ball should be easy for most of the players, and big drivers will have an advantage if they are finding fairways at a high rate.
The back nine of the venue (will play as the front nine this week) rolls through more heavily tree’d areas and contains a couple of slight doglegs, while the front nine (will play as the back this week) features water on five holes but has a more open parkland setting, which should encourage driver usage and more aggressive play. Like many of his other setups, Fazio’s Caves Valley looks like a “driver-friendly” venue, so players who can dominate off the tee with accuracy and length here definitely should get a bump up for fantasy purposes. Six of the par 4’s here play over 450 yards in length as well, so driving efficiency and efficiency on par 4’s between 450-500 yards are a couple of stats to view here.”
DraftKings Pick6 has full tournament totals up for this week, so I’ll again be focusing on FULL TOURNAMENT totals, specifically finishing positions (“Better Than” or “Worse Than”), but also the holes played market, which essentially acts as a “make or miss the cut” question.
Top DraftKings Pick6 Picks for the BMW Championship
Kurt Kitayama Better Than 20.5 Finishing Position
Kitayama not only won last month in Minnesota (his second win on the PGA) but he’s also coming off a T-9 at TPC Southwind, where he gained over 1.5 strokes off the tee for the fifth event in a row, AND gained strokes putting for the third event in a row.
Kitayama’s also a complete animal off the tee and ranks top 10 in distance and SG: OTT, so he should feel comfortable on this week’s Fazio design, which offers players like him numerous chances to rip the driver. While he didn’t play here in 2021, Kitayama did finish second to Rory McIlroy on Congaree, another Fazio-designed venue, at the CJ Cup in 2022.
This venue should suit him just fine, and with how well he’s played of late, and how much momentum tends to play in determining success in the FedEx Cup, I view him as a solid play to land a top 20 for us in Pick6 lineups this week.
Keegan Bradley Worse Than 18.5 Finishing Position
I’m just going to leave what I wrote about Bradley here from last week, who we also faded (correctly) at the St. Jude. His T-44 finish allowed the Worse Than side to profit there, and I don’t see any reason to think his play will dramatically improve this week to go against that play again.
“It’s been a great season for Bradley, who took home his second Travelers title just last month in Hartford. However, with the Ryder Cup on the horizon, you get the feeling that his future results may be taking a bit of a backseat. The weight of the Ryder Cup captaincy may have even started to show last week when he missed the cut at the Wyndham Championship and lost over 3.0 strokes on approach in the process.”
Bradley again lost strokes on approach in Memphis, and worse, he’s now lost confidence with the putter. It’s not a great combo for a week where players will need to go low, so I see another poor finish likely for Keegan.
Robert MacIntyre Worse Than 20.5 Finishing Position
MacIntyre had himself a solid Open Championship, landing a T-7 over in Ireland, his second top 10 at Portrush. However, since then, he’s looked completely off-kilter. He managed a T-44 at the Wyndham, but lost numerous strokes off the tee and never competed against the weaker field. Last week was much of the same as he struggled with his ball-striking at the tighter TPC Southwind.
His putting has been excellent, but it’s hard to say how long he can keep riding that club with his ball-striking so poor. Given how poorly he’s been driving it of late, I don’t see any reason to be bullish on him this week at the driver-heavy Caves Valley. It’s possible he bounces back, but given that he’s finished down the field in two straight events, playing for him to land in the back half of this week’s field feels like the correct move for Pick6 lineups.
Harris English Better Than 20.5 Finishing Position
English didn’t have the greatest week at the St. Jude, but I’d look for him to bounce back quickly at the BMW Championship. As of now, he’s 10th in the FedEx Cup rankings, but he’s also in the last automatic qualifying spot for the Ryder Cup team as of writing, and this event marks the last event in which players can earn points.
Overall, English has had a great season, landing two T-2 finishes in major championships and a win. He’s also played well on Tom Fazio designs in the past, landing a top 10 at the Palmetto Championship back in 2021, and he handles longer golf courses extremely well, as evidenced by his T-2 at Quail Hollow this season and multiple US Open top-five finishes.
I see this as a good spot to be bullish on him for Pick6 lineups with the top-20 result well within his grasp should he putt up to standards.
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