Week 1 of college football concludes on a stage Bill Belichick is familiar with — Monday Night Football. However, watching Belichick coach on Monday night will be just about the only thing we’re used to seeing, as this time around he’ll be roaming the sidelines in a North Carolina cutoff hoodie.
The Tar Heels will host TCU in the Week 1 finale, and we’ve seen plenty of line movement in this one against Belichick in his college debut. UNC opened a 2.5-point favorite on DK Sportsbook when the game popped on the board months ago, but the Horned Frogs have taken 81% of the money on just 39% of the spread bets (as of August 13). That action shifted TCU all the way to a 3.5-point road favorite. While the TCU side has been the popular play, I’m focused on the total.
Expect Belichick to bring an NFL-style defense to Chapel Hill, along with some schemes that many college offenses haven’t gone up against before. Belichick is also notorious for his in-game adjustments, which also have the potential to throw a wrench in the Horned Frogs’ high-flying offense. Remember, Bill also brings along his son, Steve Belichick, in at defensive coordinator at UNC. Steve has college experience, and led one of the stingiest defenses in the country last season with the Washington Huskies in the Big Ten.
North Carolina opened up playing a grinder last season as well, clawing out a 19-17 victory at Minnesota. While I don’t put a ton of stock in that game due to the coaching changes, the defense returns some quality starters. The back seven are expected to be the strength, which bodes well for slowing down TCU through the air.
This handicap is more about the unexpected than digging through the numbers, though. If Belichick’s defense proves capable of playing the way he wants it too, I expect the market on UNC totals to come down throughout the first month or so of the season. Given that TCU has to be the guinea pig here, I could see it struggling to move the ball.
The Horned Frogs do return quarterback Josh Hoover, but depart their top-two rushers and five of their top-six pass catchers from a season ago. The offensive line should be solid, but this is a tough spot to ask TCU’s offense to come out and immediately put up the numbers we’re accustomed to seeing.
TCU returns eight starters on the defensive side of the ball, and project as a stronger unit than last season. Like UNC, the strength of the defense is expected to be in the secondary, limiting the Tar Heels’ passing game. It’ll be very interesting to see what type of offense Belichick is capable of running at the college level. Anything is possible, but it’s hard to ignore the drop off we saw in New England after a certain quarterback left for Tampa Bay. Even with Tom Brady, Bill has always focused on winning games on defense, dating back to his days as defensive coordinator of the Giants.
The total in this game opened at 59.5 on DraftKings Sportsbook, and is down to 58.5 after the under was hit with 69% of the bets for 86% of the handle (as of August 13). I agree with the move, and think the under is still worth a play at 58.5. Expect the defenses to be ahead of the offenses when these teams meet on September 1, and Belichick to have some unique schemes to the college game in his back pocket.
CFB Pick: UNDER 58.5 (-110) 1-unit
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