The Las Vegas Aces and New York Liberty will face off tonight as part of the four-game WNBA slate. A’ja Wilson and company will brace for battle as the past two WNBA champions face off.
New York sits in second place in the WNBA standings with a 21-11 record. Las Vegas is not far behind them with an 18-14 record, which slots them at fifth place in the league. This will be the third matchup between these two teams so far this season, with the Liberty producing victories in each of the first two matchups. They opened the season with a 92-78 victory over the Aces and also defeated Las Vegas 87-78 back on July 8th.
Looking at tonight’s odds, Las Vegas enters as three-point favorites and holds -155 odds on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Liberty holds +130 odds of getting the outright victory, with the game total set at 172.
Here are my favorite A’ja Wilson prop bets as she prepares to match up with the defending champions for the third time this season.
Best A’ja Wilson Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
A’ja Wilson Over 10.5 Rebounds (-110)
The New York Liberty will continue to be without Breanna Stewart, which is a big hit to their rebounding output and overall production. Even while the two-time MVP has been on the floor, rebounding has been a problem for New York. Opponents are pulling in 36.3 rebounds per game against the Liberty, which is the most in the entire WNBA. They also rank 11th in total rebounding percentage and have the worst offensive rebounding percentage in the league.
A’ja Wilson leads the Aces in this category and is averaging 9.6 rebounds per game on the season. NaLyssa Smith (6.1) is the only other player averaging more than 4.4 rebounds per game on the Aces roster. Wilson has tallied over 10.5 rebounds in 10 games so far this season. This includes 16 in the season opener against the Liberty, and Wilson is coming off a season-high 20 rebound performance in the previous game. It is also worth noting that Wilson got injured during the second matchup with the Liberty and was limited to just 14 minutes of action.
On paper, the Liberty have several solid frontcourt options. They added to this by signing Emma Meesseman, who has suited up for the past five games. But the results have not matched the talent, and Wilson is right near the top of the list of players most capable of capitalizing on this. She has tallied over 10.5 rebounds in three of her past four games, and averaged 11.9 rebounds per game last season. Expect some confidence to carry over from her previous 20-rebound outing and for Wilson to record over 10.5 rebounds against the Liberty again tonight.
A’ja Wilson to Record 40+ Combined Points & Rebounds (+255)
To take it a step further, I am backing the big swing for Wilson to record 40+ combined points and rebounds at +255 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. You can get -125 odds for Wilson to record 33+ combined points and rebounds as well. The three-time MVP became the first player in WNBA history to tally 30 points and 20 rebounds in her previous game played. Wilson has pulled in 10+ rebounds in all six games in which she scored 30+ points, and reached this total in eight total games this season. This includes back-to-back games entering tonight.
The bar of expectation is extremely high for the seven-time All-Star, and she has fallen short of this for a chunk of the season. Wilson is averaging 22.2 points and 9.6 rebounds overall this year. These are extremely impressive outputs by the standards of nearly all WNBA players, but a notable step back from the 26.9 points and 11.9 rebounds per game she averaged last year. The 2022 NBA Champion has begun to heat up of late and is averaging 24.2 points and 10.8 rebounds across her past 12 games, recording 40+ combined points and rebounds in five of these games.
New York is allowing the most rebounds per game and the seventh-most points per game on the season. They also give up the second-most second-chance points and rank eighth in opponents’ points in the paint. Wilson looks to be finding her full form with the season winding down, and this should be a sobering thought for the rest of the WNBA. Look for her to capitalize on Stewart’s absence and play in attack mode right from the opening whistle tonight. The +255 odds indicate it is a big swing, but I am buying into the recent uptick in production being here to stay.
