The 2025 college football season has just about arrived, with expectations building for every team across the country. There has been plenty of movement across the sport and Conference USA has been right in the midst of this. Three teams left for the AAC in 2014, three left for the Sun Belt in 2022, and six left for the AAC in 2023. Liberty joined in 2018 and won a conference title with a Fiesta Bowl appearance two seasons ago, while Jacksonville State will look to defend the conference title they earned last year in just their second season. Sam Houston is also in their second season in the Conference USA and went 10-3 in 2024.
Let’s dive into the outlook for the conference ahead of the 2025 college football season and look at which bets on DraftKings Sportsbook make the most sense.
Conference USA College Football Betting Preview
Liberty (+100 to win Conference USA)
Expectations were high for Liberty last year after a 13-1 finish in 2023 which allowed them to climb as high as 18th in the AP Poll during their first year in Conference USA. Last season, they put up a few duds and ultimately finished 8-4 without making nearly the amount of noise that was expected. There is more roster turnover ahead of this season, headlined by star quarterback Kaidon Salter and running back Quinton Cooley, each no longer with the program.
Head coach Jamey Chadwell is expected to count on Coastal Carolina transfer Ethan Vasko as the starting quarterback. Three starters in the offensive line are returning, and the program added Florida State transfer Christian Williams. They also added former Colorado State transfer Jamari Person and returned Elijah Canion and Reese Smith at the wide receiver position. The running back position is fairly unproven, but Liberty has a nice track record of running the ball and returning RBs Vaughn Blue and Julian Gray averaged 6.0 yards per carry in a limited sample size. It was a mixed bag of results from the defense last year, and most of the same key pieces remain in place. Liberty may go with an 11-man starting front of all juniors and seniors on the defensive side. They lost last year’s sack leader, TJ Bush Jr., but added a few key pieces such as Aaron Hester and Derrell Farrar.
Liberty is the most sure team in the conference with plenty of experience on their side and some upside to reach. Expect this team to be well aware of their shortcomings last year and have a chip on their shoulder. They are rightfully considered the frontrunners to win the conference overall, but without much value on the +100 odds for the Conference USA title, my favorite bet is for Liberty to record over 9.5 wins. This will almost certainly cash and this gives you a window to win without the conference title heading to Liberty’s campus.
Best Bet: Liberty Over 9.5 Wins (-135)
Western Kentucky (+425 to win Conference USA)
Tyson Helton is entering his seventh year as head coach of Western Kentucky. He has led the program to at least eight wins in each of the past four seasons and five of his six seasons overall. There has been quite a bit of movement both at the coordinator position and within the roster, but the Hilltoppers have managed to continue to produce. This season will truly test things as Helton is breaking in his fourth offensive coordinator in the past five years and his first new defensive coordinator in the past four years. 37 players have also transferred out, while 43 are coming in. Only two starters remain from last year’s roster.
Albilene Christian transfer Maverick McIvor is expected to serve as the starting quarterback. Western Kentucky also brought over Abilene Christian’s offensive coordinator, so the hope is that this will make the transition process pretty seamless. Several notable transfers were brought in at the wide receiver position as they build out a pass-friendly offense. There are just as many new faces on the defensive end. Change is uncomfortable, and this will be pushing Helton’s abilities in a major way. But the track record is strong, and McIvor showed some real flashes last year which included him throwing for 3,847 yards and 30 touchdowns. There will be some early growing pains, but I am backing McIvor to be a bit of a breakout star and help lead this Western Kentucky program to another successful season.
Best Bet: Over 7.5 Wins (-125)
Louisiana Tech (+900 to win Conference USA)
The Bulldogs are coming off a 5-8 season last year in which they went 4-4 in conference play. This was a step forward from the 3-9 record they produced in back-to-back years before this, and head coach Sonny Cumbie will be looking for the program to take another leap in his fourth season at the helm. Louisiana Tech has not won more than five games in a season since 2019.
They will have the advantage of having more continuity than has become the norm in college football. Redshirt freshman Evan Bullock led the team in passing last year. He returns after completing 65.7% of his passes with 14 passing touchdowns and just four interceptions last year. Bullock will be joined alongside leading rusher Omiri Wiggins, wide receiver Jay Wilkerson, tight end Eli Finley, and a framework of the offensive line. The Bulldogs also brought in one of the top running backs from the NAIA in Andrew Burnette. Tony Franklin remains in place as the offensive coordinator, but will have a new DC after Jeremiah Johnson left for the Coastal Carolina job. Former Jacksonville State defensive coordinator Luke Olsen joined the staff and has plenty of work to do. Of the 11 players who saw at least 200 defensive snaps in the front six last season, eight are gone. The secondary is relatively sound, and the defensive unit took a large leap forward last year overall.
The defense is a bit of a question mark, but the strides Bullock took last season were encouraging and the offense should perform at a fairly high level. With a friendly schedule, it is fair to be optimistic about Louisiana Tech’s outlook. Don’t expect them to take quite the leap that they are contending for the conference title, but feel confident in Cumbie leading the program to their best record during his tenure.
Best Bet: Over 5.5 wins (-175)
Jacksonville State (+1100 to win Conference USA)
The transition to Conference USA has looked relatively easy for Jacksonville State. They went 9-4 in their first season and followed this up with a 9-5 season in which they took home the conference title last year. But a head coaching change has been made with Rich Rodriguez taking the West Virginia job. Offensive coordinator Rod Smith served as the interim head coach for the final game last year, but Charles Kelly has been hired to lead the program from here. Kelly has served as both the offensive and defensive coordinator for Jacksonville State in the past, but this was before the turn of the century. He has spent time coaching under Nick Saban, Deion Sanders, Jimbo Fisher, and Hugh Freeze over the past decade, and Clint Trickett has been brought in as the team’s offensive coordinator.
On the field, the Gamecocks are set to look much different this year with 18 starters needing to be replaced from last year’s roster. He brought in some intriguing names in the transfer portal, such as former Rutgers and Kentucky QB Gavin Wimsatt and TCU running back Cam Cook. But there are still some gaps in the offensive line. They leaned on a rush-oriented attack under Rich Rodriguez and will need to make some stylistic adjustments this season. Kelly has all the experience you could hope for from an assistant coaching perspective, but this will mark his first year running a full program. Expectations remain relatively high for Jacksonville State, but expect some growing pains along the way with so much turnover. I am bracing for some significant program regression, so watch for them to remain somewhat competitive but fail to produce the results that are hoped for.
Best Bet: Under 5.5 Wins (-115)
Sam Houston (+1200 to win Conference USA)
Sam Houston is another darling program that exceeded expectations and has been forced to hit a reset. They went 10-3 last season, a huge step forward from the 3-9 record they posted their first year in the conference. But head coach K.C. Keeler left to go to Temple, and Phil Longo will be stepping in for his first season as head coach. The program was forced to replace every single defensive starter from last year. It is also worth noting that home games will be taking place 70 miles away from campus this year, with Elliott T. Bowers Stadium undergoing renovations.
Quarterback Hunter Watson is returning along with three starting offensive linemen and his two most explosive wide receivers. Longo also brought with him two Wisconsin QB signings, which could be a storyline to note. It isn’t too difficult to talk yourself into the offense being respectable, but the other side of the ball carries much more significant concern. Only four of Sam Houston’s returning defenders saw more than 110 FBS snaps last season, even including the incoming transfer pool. They look to be absent of both top-end talent and depth, particularly on the defensive line. In addition, the Bearkats went 6-0 in one-score games last season and were considered one of the 15 most fortunate teams in turnovers, close games, and lineup consistency last year. Just about everything went right for Sam Houston, which feels unlikely to occur a second season in a row. I am bracing for a significant step back and for their record to look more similar to their first season in the CUSA.
Best Bet: Under 4.5 Wins (+100)
UTEP (+1400 to win Conference USA)
UTEP fell on the opposite side of the luck spectrum last year and did not crack the top 100 in turnover luck, close-game fortune, or lineup stability. Only three starting players suited up for all 12 games, and 44 different players logged at least one start. They limped to a 3-9 record for the second straight year and the first season with Scotty Walden as head coach. They did close the year going 3-3 after their 0-6 start, but the Miners never really got out of the starting gate last year.
Of the 44 starters, 21 are returning this season. But Walden was aggressive in the offseason and changed both coordinators while bringing in 30 transfers. Most of these were on the defensive side of the ball. Former USC and Boise State QB Malachi Nelson was brought in to compete with Skyler Locklear for the quarterback position. Kenny Odom and Kam Thomas return at wide receiver after combining for over 1,200 yards last year. UTEP struggled to put forth any semblance of a running game in 2024, but brought in Charlotte RB Hahsaun Wilson, who averaged 6.1 yards per carry last year. The season win total is right on the mark based on how much change has occurred, and the outcome likely comes down to the results of one or two games. Cautiously, I am still fading UTEP’s outlook, but they should be set for a better record than last year.
Best Bet: Under 5.5 Wins (-140)
Middle Tennessee (+1500 to win Conference USA)
It was a nightmare start to Derek Mason’s tenure at Middle Tennessee, going 3-9 last season and producing the program’s worst winning percentage since 2011. Even their three wins all came by single digits while losing by 15+ points in all nine losses.
Both coordinators are returning for the Blue Raiders as a show of good faith. Plenty of the same core is also coming back, headlined by quarterback Nicholas Vattiato and DTs Shakai Woods and Damonte Smith, who combined for 11.5 tackles for a loss and 20 run stops last year. They also added Ohio running back Rickey Hunt Jr, Michigan wide receiver Amorion Walker, and standout Rhode Island tackle Jacob Otts. They did not pay quite the same attention to the defensive side of the ball, but still brought in three transfers and two JUCO additions in the secondary. Last season was bleak, but with so much uncertainty across the conference, there is a chance for a turnaround quicker than past results would make you think. You cannot teach continuity, and the Blue Raiders will have this on their side. Don’t expect it to be the smoothest process to get there, but the Middle Tennessee win total is too low for my liking ahead of the 2025 college football season.
Best Bet: Over 4.5 Wins (-160)
FIU (+1600 to win Conference USA)
There seems to be more optimism surrounding FIU than is generally expected, with Willie Simmons stepping into his first year as head coach. This is not a program with much historical success. Across their 21 FBS seasons, FIU has only finished with a winning record four times and has won one or fewer games in five different seasons. Butch Davis looked to have things trending in the right direction, leading them to a 9-4 record in 2018, but the Panthers have gone a combined 13-40 over the past five seasons since this point. They are coming off three consecutive 4-8 seasons, which was enough to fire head coach Mike MacIntyre last year. Willie Simmons has showcased his head coaching chops at Prairie View A&M and Florida A&M and was the running backs coach at Duke last year, but this is a difficult situation to walk into.
Simmons brought in several power conference transfers, including Georgia Tech’s RB Anthony Carrie, Louisville WR JoJo Stone, Miami G Antonio Tripp Jr, and Florida State DEs Lamont Green Jr. and Dante Anderson. Quarterback Keyone Jenkins will return after throwing for 2,557 yards and 22 touchdowns last year, but will be without last year’s two top pass catchers. FIU took steps in the right direction this offseason, but still has some work to do. When gauging the overall level of talent across the conference, it is tough to talk yourself into the Panthers having a clear path to relevance. Expect some baby steps in the right direction, but there to be no quick fixes for some larger program issues.
Best Bet: Under 5.5 Wins (-130)
New Mexico State (+2800 to win Conference USA)
Tony Sanchez will be in his second season as New Mexico State head coach after going 3-9 last year. The Aggies showcased a high-flying offense for stretches that tallied 28+ points in five games. They ran the ball well and built out a strong play-action game from this, but their passing production was inconsistent across the board. New Mexico State lost its two leading rushers and the seven top linemen from last year. Montana transfer Logan Fife was brought in and will challenge Parker Awad for the starting QB spot. Cal transfer Kadarius Calloway and Utah transfer Dijon Stanley will likely serve as the primary running backs, and five wide receivers were also brought in through the transfer portal.
New Mexico State was far too dependent on taking defensive gambles last season, and these efforts did not counteract the big plays they allowed. They return linebackers Tyler Martinez and Sone Aupiu as a foundation, but lost eight starters from last season. Sanchez added seven JUCO defensive backs and still kept defensive coordinator Joe Morris in place. You have to squint to see the full vision of the team, but with a relatively easy schedule that includes matchups with Bryant and Tulsa to start, there is a pathway to the Aggies outperforming expectations. If the quarterback production takes a leap and can perform more consistently, the wins should be on the table. This win total is a shade too low to scare me away.
Best Bet: Over 3.5 Wins (+105)
Kennesaw State (+4000 to win Conference USA)
Up until the end of last season, Brian Bohannon was the only head coach in Kennesaw State history. He helped build the program from scratch in 2013 and took them to their first season in the FBS last year, but there is no loyalty in this game, and he was fired without completing his first FBS season. The Owls were just 1-8 at the time of the firing and finished the year 2-10. Jerry Mack has been named as his replacement this year, and he did his best to keep most of the roster intact.
Looking at the defensive side of the ball, 13 of 17 players with at least 200 snaps are returning. He still attacked the portal with additions such as Purdue LB transfer Antonio Stevens and Miami safety transfer Isaiah Thomas. Offensively, there are far more reasons for concern. Mitch Militello steps in as offensive coordinator, former starting quarterback Davis Bryson has transitioned to wide receiver, and there is no experienced quarterback on staff. Georgia Southern transfer Dexter Williams II had just 248 passing yards last season, and Wofford transfer Amari Odom had 1,565 passing yards at the FCS level. No returning rusher had more than 29 yards last year, and no returning wide receiver had more than 203 yards through the air. They brought in seven offensive line transfers, including two FBS starters, but there is no sure thing about the offensive unit. Expect these offensive problems to plague Kennesaw State, and its strong defensive unit will not be able to carry them. This will be a season-long experiment of figuring out what works within the offense, so don’t expect this to translate to much team success.
Best Bet: Under 3.5 Wins (+120)
