The college football season is just around the corner. The Big 12 is one of the most unpredictable conferences in college football, with no clear-cut favorite. This is my preview of the conference and the best Big 12 futures to consider at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Big 12 Football Betting Preview
The Big 12 is the most wide-open of the Power Four conferences. In last year’s preseason media poll, Arizona State was picked to finish last in the conference. They ended up winning the conference and making the College Football Playoff. Oklahoma State was picked to finish third, and ended up winless in Big 12 play. There were a total of seven teams that finished with either two or three losses in conference play. While it’s unlikely to get such dramatic results for a second season in a row, it is still by far the most unpredictable Power Four conference.
There is a bit more stability in the conference from last season to this season. Of the seven teams with 11/1 or better odds to win the conference, all seven are returning their head coach, and six of them are returning their starting quarterback. Last season, there was much more uncertainty around some of the top programs in the conference.
From a top-tier talent perspective, the Big 12 falls in fourth place among the Power Four conferences. At the current state of the conference, it would take a miracle run for a team to win the National Championship. The last time the Big 12 had a national champion was Texas in 2005, and a program currently in the Big 12 hasn’t won one since Colorado in 1990.
Prior to last season, the conference was dominated by Texas and Oklahoma. However, those teams moving to the SEC is what opened this conference into such a competitive race. While most teams don’t have realistic national title aspirations, the 12-team playoff at least gives these teams a chance to compete in the postseason. Arizona State was the lone Big 12 team to make the title game last season. The conference would love to get two teams in this season, but the parity makes it tough for two teams to make a real case for a playoff spot.
Best Big 12 Futures
Baylor to Win the Big 12 (+700)
Baylor is my pick to win the conference. They return one of the most talented quarterbacks in the conference, Sawyer Robertson. Between Robertson, running back Bryson Washington, wide receiver Josh Cameron and tight end Michael Trigg, Baylor will have one of the most exciting offenses in the nation, let alone the conference. Baylor won their final six games of the regular season in 2024 and will have positive momentum entering this season.
Dave Aranda is one of the more experienced coaches in the conference at this point, and his offensive coordinator, Jake Spatival, is a rising star in the sport. Aranda is one of the best defensive coaches in the country, and he will try to take a group returning a lot of talent to the upper tier in the conference. If this team had started Sawyer Robertson or not given up a crazy Hail Mary to lose against Colorado, they would have made the Big 12 title game last season. They are my best bet to break through this season and win the conference.
Houston to Make the Big 12 Championship Game (+1600)
Last season, Arizona State went on a Cinderella run to make the conference title game. There is a pathway for another team to go on a similar run this season, and my pick is the Houston Cougars. They made a splashy acquisition in the transfer portal, bringing in Conner Weigman at quarterback from Texas A&M. Weigman was a five-star recruit out of high school and has boatloads of arm talent, but was never able to get it done on a team with national title aspirations. At Houston, the defensive competition will be easier than the SEC, and there will be significantly less pressure than at A&M.
Houston made a great hire last season, taking Willie Fritz from Tulane. The first season under Fritz was a rebuilding year, but they showed flashes of what they could be under Fritz when they beat Utah and Kansas State in back-to-back games last season. They get some other teams with Big 12 title game aspirations, like Texas Tech and TCU, at home. If they can pull off an upset in one of those spots and handle the lower teams in the conference, they could have a shot to make the title game.
Iowa State o7.5 Wins (+115)
Matt Campbell is one of the best coaches in the country, and he returns his starting quarterback, Rocco Becht, for another season. The Cyclones have a lot to replace at wide receiver, losing two high-level NFL talents in one draft. That could hold this team back from winning the conference, but I expect them to exceed their win total under Campbell’s leadership. In a league with so many coinflip games, coaching can be the difference, and that should get them to eight wins.
Oklahoma State u4.5 Wins (+165)
Last season was a disaster for Oklahoma State. They were one of the favorites to win the conference, but ended up not winning a single conference game. They broke an 18-season streak of making a bowl game, and there is a real chance they miss out on the postseason two years in a row. They play Oregon in non-conference play early in the season, and get Baylor in their first conference game, which could send things spiraling quickly. The two other teams with the worst odds to win the Big 12 are Arizona and UCF, both teams that Oklahoma State has to face on the road. That makes it even more of an uphill battle for Oklahoma State to find three conference wins in order to get to five total wins on the season.
