Last night’s matchup between the Houston Astros (67-52) and Boston Red Sox (65-55) brought plenty of emotions for both players and fans in Daikin Park alike as Carlos Correa made his first appearance at his old home ballpark since rejoining the franchise at the Trade Deadline. Likewise, Alex Bregman made his return to H-Town, albeit in a Boston uniform rather than the blue-and-orange attire he used to don. After Houston won 7-6 yesterday, tonight’s rematch should be fun as the series continues.
Get ready for the action with an Astros vs. Red Sox prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Tuesday evening’s affair.
Astros vs. Red Sox prediction, preview
The Astros saw their AL West lead shrink over the last several days as the Seattle Mariners gained ground. Now just one game up, Houston must keep winning if they want to remain atop the division — thankfully for tonight’s home team, they’ve already seen improvement with their Trade Deadline acquisitions.
The lineup still sees a couple of holes to fill as Yordan Alvarez remains sidelined along with a couple of depth players and starting pitchers, but Houston’s getting healthier by the day. They’re just 11-12 since the All-Star Game but they’re 5-5 since the Deadline and may trend upwards again with more MLB talent in the lineup than while they nursed even more injuries over the last month. The offense ranks 13th in scoring since the ASG with 102 runs in 23 games, though they’ve put up over five per contest over the last week. The team’s OPS sits 15th at .729 and they’re also seventh in average with a .259 mark, in no small part thanks to a resurgent Carlos Correa.
The Red Sox are just as formidable an opponent. Boston boasts a 12-10 record since the break and remain in a Wild Card slot as they chase the AL East leaders, the Toronto Blue Jays.
The boys from Beantown have scored 108 runs in 22 contests since the ASG, 11th-most in baseball. They’ve done so with a .727 OPS, just a shade behind Houston at 17th in the MLB, but they’re hitting just .243 overall, a mark which falls 19th. Neither of these teams hit fewer than 24 home runs since the break, with Boston holding a very slight edge with just one more moonshot than their opponents. The Red Sox do have a nice young core of players, so while they’re gunning for a playoff spot now, their World Series window likely truly opens up next season.
Astros vs. Red Sox pick, best bet
The odds on DraftKings Sportsbook indicate a relative toss-up on Tuesday evening. The Astros come in as -113 Moneyline favorites on while the Red Sox trail just behind as -108 underdogs. The run total sits at an even nine this evening.
The matchup on the mound brings some intrigue as Spencer Arrighetti (7.43 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 13 SO) gets his fourth start of the year. His stats don’t look great whatsoever and he was shelled in his return on August 6 (his last appearance before that came on April 5), but the sample size remains small. Still, he faces a tough test against Boston’s lineup. However, Red Sox starter Dustin May (4.93 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 101 SO) doesn’t have the most inspiring numbers himself, so this could become a high-scoring contest.
This pick runs with a bit of risk since these bullpens rank fourth and fifth-best in terms of ERA, but the over does bring some appeal at even odds. The Astros’ offense woke up in recent days and the Red Sox’s was already producing at a decent clip, plus two of four prior matchups this year went over the nine-run total. This has the makings of one of the top games on tonight’s slate.
Best bet: Over nine runs (+100)
Click the odds on this bet to tail!
